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Will the S&P 500 AGAIN decrease by over 5% in one day in 2025?

Apr 4, 9:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.1%chance

14235011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1488

672

Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 2% in one day in 2025 after April 4, 2025?

Apr 4, 10:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99.03%chance

2715602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10120

99

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025

Feb 3, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.44%chance

2813335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21502

5811

Will the S&P 500 increase by over 20% in one day in 2025?

Jan 2, 5:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

1.26%chance

77850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8850

113

Will 'One Piece' Day 2025 announce a new anime film?

Jul 4, 6:15 PMAug 10, 12:00 AM

48%chance

131351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen issued a federal pardon before the end of day on December 31, 2026

Feb 4, 6:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.19%chance

101331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2121

472

Will the US tariffs against EU of 30% beginning of august 1. 2025 be effective (at least for one day?)

Jul 17, 5:29 PMAug 5, 12:00 AM

6.9%chance

11676

OptionVotes

YES

NO

367

27

Will Grand Theft Auto 6 break both 11M units sold and $800M sales in one day, the records that GTA5 set on release?

Dec 5, 2:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.71%chance

22672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1047

962

At the end of Juneteenth 2026 (June 19) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin?

Jan 12, 7:48 PMJun 20, 3:59 AM

9.37%chance

7430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

37

At the end of Boxing Day 2027 (Dec 26) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin?

Jan 12, 7:46 PMDec 27, 4:59 AM

39.14%chance

5176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

75

Will one of John Allison's comics get adapted into a movie or tv show before 2031? (Scary Go Round, Giant Days, etc)

May 5, 5:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.09%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

At the end of Groundhog Day 2028 (Feb 2) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin?

Jan 12, 7:52 PMFeb 3, 4:59 AM

50.45%chance

528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

92

87

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