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Top stories

Toho's Kabuki Drama "Kokuho" Surpasses ¥10.5 Billion, Third Highest-Grossing Live-Action Japanese Film

Toho's Kabuki Drama "Kokuho" Surpasses ¥10.5 Billion, Third Highest-Grossing Live-Action Japanese Film

Authors

11

10 months ago

Prediction markets for Dead To Rights

Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?

Feb 2, 2:59 PMDec 31, 12:35 PM

23%chance

19825357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2080

2056

Will things be okay by my lights by 2030?

Nov 21, 7:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.47%chance

234680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

Will the Iranian regime fall by end of June?

Mar 2, 10:03 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1.18%chance

372450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

917

11

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

Feb 17, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.11%chance

131565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1359

736

Aliens kill at least one human before 2035

Jul 22, 6:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

4.3%chance

18820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

943

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

May 23, 10:45 AMJul 4, 8:31 AM

11410

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Geoffrey Hinton

Toby Ord

Scott Alexander

Ilya Sutskever

Yoshua Bengio

Nick Bostrom

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

89

55

36

35

34

30

28

24

12

12

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM

37.17%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1300

769

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

Dec 14, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.87%chance

4175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

889

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

More valuable company in 2040?

Dec 22, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

215

OptionProbability

Safe Super Intelligence

Thinking Machines

53

47

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