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Top stories

Toho's Kabuki Drama "Kokuho" Surpasses ¥10.5 Billion, Third Highest-Grossing Live-Action Japanese Film

Toho's Kabuki Drama "Kokuho" Surpasses ¥10.5 Billion, Third Highest-Grossing Live-Action Japanese Film

Authors

11

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Dead To Rights

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.96%chance

625661045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13577

540

Will "chatbotting" replace "ghosting" by end of 2029?

Feb 2, 2:59 PMDec 31, 12:35 PM

23%chance

19825357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2080

2056

Will things be okay by my lights by 2030?

Nov 21, 7:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.47%chance

234680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1349

741

Will more people die in (major) plane crashes than (major) train crashes in 2026?

Feb 17, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.84%chance

121515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1309

764

will trump be assasinated in US?

Mar 7, 1:13 AMDec 31, 1:12 AM

9%chance

221389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

318

31

Will the Iranian regime fall by end of June?

Mar 2, 10:03 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

331247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

37

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

May 23, 10:45 AMJul 4, 8:31 AM

11400

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Geoffrey Hinton

Nick Bostrom

Toby Ord

Scott Alexander

Ilya Sutskever

Yoshua Bengio

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

89

55

41

36

35

34

30

24

12

12

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

New Switzerland-EU package deal ("bilaterals III") passes referendum?

Dec 14, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

4172

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will OpenAI announce AGI before 2028 conditional on it centrally being an LLM?

Sep 16, 11:34 PMAug 1, 10:59 PM

47.56%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

More valuable company in 2040?

Dec 22, 6:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

215

OptionProbability

Safe Super Intelligence

Thinking Machines

53

47

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