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Prediction markets for deal

Will Trump sign a deal with Ukraine providing military support in exchange for rare earths by the end of 2025?

Feb 15, 7:18 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

92.21%chance

230118183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3460

316

Will Ukrainian government accept a peace deal that includes the loss of contested lands in the east (Donetsk and/or Lugansk)

May 19, 12:55 PMDec 24, 4:59 AM

84%chance

25335562

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2282

392

US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?

Jun 10, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.02%chance

10234570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13712

9873

If Trump is charged in Georgia, will he make a deal?

Aug 26, 11:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.5%chance

453810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

856

Will AI-linked nuclear power deals total 15 GW by EOY2026?

Jul 1, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.85%chance

82541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10867

9202

Will I think MCP servers are a big deal at the end of 2025?

Mar 12, 7:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.55%chance

152218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1511

662

If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?

Mar 8, 9:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10%chance

281607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1751

881

Will there be a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal before September 2025?

Jul 28, 3:04 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

26.38%chance

251063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1671

599

Did the European commission offer X a secret deal?

Jul 12, 6:43 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

30.07%chance

5725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

656

Will an AI be able to play 3-person Monopoly Deal or an equivalent card game at a superhuman level by the end of 2025?

Jan 19, 11:49 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

75.5%chance

15510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

850

"Teal Deal" before 2040?

May 10, 10:09 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

19.14%chance

11448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

951

Will "Making deals with early schemers" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 23, 10:07 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.73%chance

287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

786

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