Death by AI News

World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

Jun 25, 3:43 PMDec 31, 5:59 PM

18166973

OptionProbability

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

United States troops enter Iran

Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

123

Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

A country declares war on Israel

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Iran undergoes a regime change

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

Any country leaves NATO

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

Izz al-Din al-Haddad remains leader of Hamas

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

A country declares war on United States

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Successful military coup in Venezuela

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

China invades Taiwan

United States formally declares war on Iran

Sudanese Civil War ends

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

China formally declares war on another country

Egypt formally declares war on another country

Iran loses territory

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Israel loses territory

USA leaves NATO

Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

Iranian troops enter Israel

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

United States formally declares war on another country

United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Israel annexes any portion of Iran

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Humans will extinct

Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

100

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

18.08%chance

10048532

OptionVotes

YES

1573

1344

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8516515

OptionProbability

Palantir

OpenAI

Other

xAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

Facebook

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Mistral

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

Mar 25, 10:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

622912

OptionProbability

A. Death by paperclips, eternal torment of all humans by AI, or similar unalignment catastrophe.

F. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. People not forced into mind-uploads or experience machines. General perception that AI has made life more meaningful/fulfilling&improved the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

I. AI soon hits fundamental scaling laws and we go into another AI winter.

B. Governments and/or other powerful entities use AI as a tool of repression, enabling global techno-totalitarianism along the model of China during Zero Covid or worse.

G. AI development continues but doesn't change things too much, somehow. Most jobs, even low-level white collar jobs, don't get impacted too hard, as new work is found to replace newly automated work. Labor force participation remains high.

C. AI doesn't actively want to hurt us, but (possibly aided by transhumanists) they become obsessed with utility maximization and force us all into mind-uploads and/or experience machines to free up resources for more computronium.

H. Humanity coordinates to prevent the development of significantly more powerful AIs.

D. AI wipes out most white-collar jobs within a decade and most blue-collar jobs within a generation; powerful humans and/or AIs at least seriously consider disposing of the "useless eaters" en masse, us being powerless to resist.

E. AI wipes out most jobs as in D. No disposing of the human masses, but general perception that AI has made life less meaningful/fulfilling & significantly worsened the human experience on dimensions other than hedonium maximization.

If an AI system is causes the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? (no n/a)

Jan 21, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

151595

OptionProbability

[No such event occurs, or otherwise underlying n/a]

Palantir

xAI

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

DeepSeek

Facebook

Other

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

Dec 4, 3:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.62%chance

7955

OptionVotes

YES

1715

583

Will more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?

Feb 17, 7:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.37%chance

23740

OptionVotes

YES

205

131

Will the first instance of an AI breakout that cannot be brought back under human control result in more than 1,000,000 deaths?

Jul 21, 4:28 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

20.36%chance

19293

OptionVotes

YES

1188

949

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will we see 1k deaths or $200B in economic damage caused by AI malfunction?

Mar 13, 6:48 AMJan 2, 11:00 AM

32.63%chance

6265

OptionVotes

YES

217

148

Will AI be directly responsible for causing an accident that results in 500 deaths by 2028?

Dec 18, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

7104

OptionVotes

YES

194

[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2027

Mar 24, 1:54 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

386

OptionProbability

0 - 0.1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.1 - 0.5 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.5 - 1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

1 - 10 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

10 - 100 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

100+ thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2030

Mar 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

328

OptionProbability

0 - 0.1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

100+ thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

1 - 10 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.1 - 0.5 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

0.5 - 1 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

10 - 100 thousand deaths or bn$ in damages

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World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

What are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?

If an AI system is causes the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? (no n/a)

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

Will more than 1000 deaths be caused by misaligned AI before 2028?

Will the first instance of an AI breakout that cannot be brought back under human control result in more than 1,000,000 deaths?

[Metaculus] Before 2032, will we see 1k deaths or $200B in economic damage caused by AI malfunction?

Will AI be directly responsible for causing an accident that results in 500 deaths by 2028?

[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2027

[Carlini questions] Thousands of deaths / billions of dollars in damage caused by AI systems within 3 days by 2030

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