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Prediction markets for Death to America
If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?
Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8616676
OptionProbability
16
16
15
14
11
10
7
6
4
1
1
Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?
Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
22.61%chance
235041
OptionVotes
5459
2563
Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?
Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM
75.43%chance
111774
OptionVotes
1752
571
If an AI system is causes the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? (no n/a)
Jan 21, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
151695
OptionProbability
90
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?
Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
30.41%chance
221229
OptionVotes
1067
1030
OptionVotes
396
25
Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
31.47%chance
12337
OptionVotes
141
124
If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?
Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM
85.53%chance
11268
OptionVotes
243
41
Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2030?
Nov 30, 2:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
29%chance
7126
OptionVotes
117
72