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Top stories

Pro-Palestinian Demonstrations in Washington D.C. and Dearborn Feature Anti-American Chants, Iranian Flag, and President Trump's Accusations

US Domestic Policy

Pro-Palestinian Demonstrations in Washington D.C. and Dearborn Feature Anti-American Chants, Iranian Flag, and President Trump's Accusations

Authors

3

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Death to America

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8616676

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Palantir

Other

xAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

DeepSeek

Facebook

Alibaba

Mistral

16

16

15

14

11

10

7

6

4

1

1

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.61%chance

235041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5459

2563

If an AI system is causes the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? (no n/a)

Jan 21, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

151595

OptionProbability

[No such event occurs, or otherwise underlying n/a]

Palantir

xAI

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

DeepSeek

Facebook

Other

91

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?

Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM

63.51%chance

91341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

758

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

35.26%chance

201078

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

883

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

25.47%chance

11279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

112

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM

85.53%chance

11268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

41

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:41 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

47%chance

8230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2030?

Nov 30, 2:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29%chance

7126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

72

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