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Top stories

Pro-Palestinian Demonstrations in Washington D.C. and Dearborn Feature Anti-American Chants, Iranian Flag, and President Trump's Accusations

US Domestic Policy

Pro-Palestinian Demonstrations in Washington D.C. and Dearborn Feature Anti-American Chants, Iranian Flag, and President Trump's Accusations

Authors

3

6 months ago

Prediction markets for Death to America

If an AI system is responsible for the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame?

Jan 21, 5:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8516349

OptionProbability

Palantir

Other

xAI

OpenAI

Anthropic

Anduril

Google

Facebook

DeepSeek

Alibaba

Mistral

17

17

13

13

10

10

7

6

5

1

1

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.26%chance

224741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5159

2655

If an AI system is causes the deaths of >= 5000 Americans by eoy 2027, which AI company would be most to blame? (no n/a)

Jan 21, 10:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

131493

OptionProbability

[No such event occurs, or otherwise underlying n/a]

Palantir

Other

xAI

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

DeepSeek

Facebook

90

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?

Nov 12, 2:58 AMMay 20, 4:00 PM

59.79%chance

91241

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

820

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

34.36%chance

201053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

908

Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:33 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.38%chance

9226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

105

If Iran regime change happens > Credible media evidence that US + Israel caused it?

Jan 2, 10:17 AMJan 2, 10:17 AM

75.67%chance

6146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

57

Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2030?

Nov 30, 2:39 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29%chance

7126

OptionVotes

YES

NO

117

72

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:41 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

25.6%chance

283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

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