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Prediction markets for Deep Learning

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7%chance

21258820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5411

1075

Deep Learning (permanent)

Mar 27, 2:21 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

5211376

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1622

664

Will geometric deep learning turn out to be as influential an idea as transformers?

May 7, 6:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.47%chance

614115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

679

Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?

May 21, 6:31 PMMay 28, 9:59 PM

76.9%chance

263816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1825

548

Will Tamay Besiroglu win his Deep Learning vs Program Synthesis bet with Mike Knoop?

Oct 28, 1:24 AMNov 4, 6:59 AM

86.59%chance

142088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2541

393

What is the largest annual revenue a single company will get via mechanistic interpretability of deep learning models in 2028?

Dec 18, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181190

OptionProbability

x >= $1B

$100K <= x < $1M

$1M <= x < $10M

$10M <= x < $100M

$0 <= x < $100K

$100M <= x < $1B

52

19

14

8

5

2

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.57%chance

3280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4054

3761

Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?

Jan 20, 9:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.84%chance

6155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

42

Geometric Deep Learning

Jun 4, 10:26 PMJun 5, 6:29 PM

6146

OptionProbability

NO

YES

144

144

Will there be a second edition of the "Deep Learning Book" within 10 years after publication

Jun 1, 2:05 PMNov 18, 10:59 PM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

Will "Deep learning as program synthesis" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 21, 3:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.93%chance

232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

824

Will Deep Learning Models Beat Classical ML algorithms on tabular data in 2028?

Oct 9, 8:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.59%chance

211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

81

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