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Prediction markets for Deep Learning

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7%chance

21358835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5411

1075

Deep Learning (permanent)

Mar 27, 2:21 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

5211376

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1622

664

Will geometric deep learning turn out to be as influential an idea as transformers?

May 7, 6:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.46%chance

624393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1715

731

Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?

May 21, 6:31 PMMay 28, 9:59 PM

76.84%chance

273817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1821

549

Will Tamay Besiroglu win his Deep Learning vs Program Synthesis bet with Mike Knoop?

Oct 28, 1:24 AMNov 4, 6:59 AM

86.59%chance

142088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2541

393

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.57%chance

3280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4054

3761

Will "Dissolving the Deep Learning Sample Efficienc..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 6, 6:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

2266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will "Maybe I was too harsh on deep learning theory..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 11, 10:16 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.33%chance

3260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

967

Will there be a publicly explicated Scientific Theory of Deep Learning before 2032?

May 2, 9:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.38%chance

7223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

858

Will there be a second edition of the "Deep Learning Book" within 10 years after publication

Jun 1, 2:05 PMNov 18, 10:59 PM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

Will "Deep learning as program synthesis" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 21, 3:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.93%chance

232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

824

Will "The paper that killed deep learning theory" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 27, 1:34 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.51%chance

417

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

902

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