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Prediction markets for Deep Learning

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.34%chance

21053727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3220

1309

Deep Learning (permanent)

Mar 27, 2:21 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

5111375

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1621

665

Will geometric deep learning turn out to be as influential an idea as transformers?

May 7, 6:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.47%chance

614115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

679

Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?

May 21, 6:31 PMMay 28, 9:59 PM

77.09%chance

263706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1834

545

Will Tamay Besiroglu win his Deep Learning vs Program Synthesis bet with Mike Knoop?

Oct 28, 1:24 AMNov 4, 6:59 AM

86.59%chance

142088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2541

393

What is the largest annual revenue a single company will get via mechanistic interpretability of deep learning models in 2028?

Dec 18, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

181190

OptionProbability

x >= $1B

$100K <= x < $1M

$1M <= x < $10M

$10M <= x < $100M

$0 <= x < $100K

$100M <= x < $1B

52

19

14

8

5

2

Will any chip maker other than NVIDIA, Intel, and AMD create accelerators for Deep Learning and be profitable by 2030?

Sep 24, 10:04 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM

90.2%chance

9371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

490

117

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.57%chance

3280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4054

3761

Will Gary Marcus still say that deep learning models can't reason after they prove the Riemann hypothesis?

Jan 3, 2:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

39.43%chance

7184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

81

Will there be a second edition of the "Deep Learning Book" within 10 years after publication

Jun 1, 2:05 PMNov 18, 10:59 PM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

Will "Deep learning as program synthesis" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 21, 3:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.93%chance

232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

824

How fast scales deep alignment from preference learning (e.g. RLHF)?

Mar 26, 9:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10

OptionProbability

Scanning faster than capabilities

Scaling as fast as capabilities

Scaling slower than capabilities

Not scaling

Inverse scaling

20

20

20

20

20

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