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Prediction markets for Deep Research

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

325752

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1335

751

Who Will Be the First to Reveal Human-Level AGI?

Mar 3, 4:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

685340

OptionProbability

Deepmind/Google/Alphabet

Anthropic

OpenAI/Microsoft

Another specific company (not one of the above or a subsidiary)

xAI or another Elon Musk-led AI initiative

A government or coalition of governments

Meta (Facebook) AI Research

A university/academic institute/independent researcher/non-profit organization or a combination of these

29

27

22

8

7

5

2

0

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

10.38%chance

224322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2669

576

Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?

Aug 6, 12:41 AMAug 6, 12:39 AM

55.67%chance

5914

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1121

892

Will a research base be established in the deep sea before Mars?

Feb 17, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.79%chance

16767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1199

898

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.43%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

776

Will computer use APIs beat fight amazon + ebay Captchas to enable price comparisons? at mid 2027

May 31, 1:02 AMJul 1, 12:59 AM

70.93%chance

3582

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1562

640

A way to set up an LLM to send and receive physical mail by mid 2029

Mar 8, 6:58 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

70.74%chance

5555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1555

643

Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?

Aug 6, 12:49 AMAug 6, 12:48 AM

32.23%chance

4450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1450

690

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.57%chance

3280

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4054

3761

Will a permanent research base be established in the deep sea before Mars?

Feb 17, 11:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.63%chance

14269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

962

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

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