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Prediction markets for Deep Think

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

29.5%chance

687291743

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5823

3671

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

68.85%chance

1710146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14867

6726

Will Manifold hire me in 2025?

Feb 21, 9:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13%chance

234498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2587

387

Gemini 3 Deep Think available on API in 2025?

Nov 18, 4:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.33%chance

94439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2263

442

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

28.51%chance

363775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

974

Gemini 3 Deep Think Frontier Math 1-3 Score

Nov 21, 6:56 PMDec 31, 6:54 PM

133247

OptionProbability

45 - 50%

50 - 55%

55 - 60%

40 - 45%

60 - 65%

<40%

65 - 70%

80%+

70 - 75%

75 - 80%

28

27

17

13

6

3

2

2

1

1

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.5%chance

442809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

868

Before 2026, will Gemini 3.0 exceed GPT-5 in Metr estimated time horizon?

Oct 14, 6:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.5%chance

211608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1388

983

Will my JobScrub 👻 browser extension for Indeed.com have 20 premium users by the end of 2026? (Ṁ1k subsidy)

Dec 2, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.88%chance

1550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

736

Will a frontier model be delayed in the EU by 90+ days in 2025?

Aug 15, 1:29 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

34.87%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1367

732

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

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