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Prediction markets for Deep Think
Prediction markets for Deep Think
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Oct 26, 3:24 PM
Feb 1, 4:59 AM
8.77%
chance
793
414172
Option
Votes
YES
NO
14104
2043
Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?
Aug 13, 5:03 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
74.1%
chance
35
3391
Option
Votes
NO
YES
169
59
Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?
May 3, 5:03 PM
Jan 3, 10:59 PM
44.78%
chance
47
3044
Option
Votes
YES
NO
984
961
Will my JobScrub 👻 browser extension for Indeed.com have 20 premium users by the end of 2026? (Ṁ1k subsidy)
Dec 2, 6:56 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
76.88%
chance
6
1311
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1823
548
Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026?
Aug 1, 12:11 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
8.28%
chance
2
1260
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2260
816
Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?
Jun 15, 12:04 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
44.93%
chance
7
176
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1107
903
Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29
Mar 7, 10:25 PM
Jul 1, 6:59 AM
56%
chance
3
128
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1128
886
Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?
May 2, 4:30 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
40.19%
chance
1
22
Option
Votes
YES
NO
122
82
Have you formed a firm view on an existing moral question within the past year?
Oct 2, 8:56 PM
13
0
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