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Prediction markets for Deep Think

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

28.88%chance

750333270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5934

3630

Will the Supreme Court weaken Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais?

Oct 17, 7:08 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

69.67%chance

1914646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15156

6598

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

28.51%chance

363775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

974

Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?

Aug 13, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.18%chance

333371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

189

53

Gemini 3 Deep Think Frontier Math 1-3 Score

Nov 21, 6:56 PMFeb 28, 6:54 PM

133247

OptionProbability

45 - 50%

50 - 55%

55 - 60%

40 - 45%

60 - 65%

<40%

65 - 70%

80%+

70 - 75%

75 - 80%

28

27

17

13

6

3

2

2

1

1

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

53.02%chance

442859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

821

Will my JobScrub 👻 browser extension for Indeed.com have 20 premium users by the end of 2026? (Ṁ1k subsidy)

Dec 2, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.14%chance

2844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1609

621

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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