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Prediction markets for Deep Thinking

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

44.2%chance

559183481

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4736

3968

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

Jun 1, 10:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7026933

OptionProbability

Llama 4

Claude 4(any version)

Gemini 2

Grok 2

Claude 4 Opus

Phi 4

Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Think

DeepSeek Coder V3

Gemini 1.5 Ultra

DeepSeek-R2

Gemini 3

Claude 5

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

1

1

1

1

0

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

28.51%chance

363775

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

974

Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?

Aug 13, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.08%chance

333360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

201

50

1. Meta will begin charging for use of its Llama models.

Dec 27, 8:10 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

26.86%chance

342895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1650

606

Will Manifold hire me in 2025?

Feb 21, 9:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.93%chance

172868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2215

451

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.5%chance

442809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

868

Should society have pivoted from artificial intelligence to krantz collective intelligence?

Jan 21, 8:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

74.94%chance

41861

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1729

578

are LLMs easy to align because unsupervised learning imbues them with an ontology where human values are easy to express

Aug 29, 2:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.74%chance

13659

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

901

Will a frontier model be delayed in the EU by 90+ days in 2025?

Aug 15, 1:29 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

33.91%chance

6396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1396

716

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

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