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Prediction markets for Deep Thinking

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

32%chance

788397421

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5430

3850

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

27.85%chance

363784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

997

978

Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?

Aug 13, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.7%chance

343381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

159

63

Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon

May 21, 7:08 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

173113

OptionProbability

12h - 14h

14h - 16h

10h - 12h

16h - 18h

8h - 10h

18h - 20h

6h - 8h

Other

20h - 22h

<6h

20

19

14

11

8

8

7

6

5

2

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

44.78%chance

473044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

984

961

Will my JobScrub 👻 browser extension for Indeed.com have 20 premium users by the end of 2026? (Ṁ1k subsidy)

Dec 2, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.88%chance

61311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1823

548

We get Gemini 4 Pro before GTA 6

Jul 7, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.01%chance

7835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

568

504

Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before EOY 2026?

Aug 1, 12:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.77%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

944

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1107

903

Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29

Mar 7, 10:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56%chance

3128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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