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Prediction markets for Deep Thinking
Prediction markets for Deep Thinking
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Oct 26, 3:24 PM
Feb 1, 4:59 AM
22%
chance
783
394355
Option
Votes
YES
NO
7386
3139
Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning
Jan 23, 8:50 PM
Jan 1, 6:00 AM
27.85%
chance
36
3784
Option
Votes
YES
NO
997
978
Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?
Aug 13, 5:03 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
71.7%
chance
34
3381
Option
Votes
NO
YES
159
63
Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?
May 3, 5:03 PM
Jan 3, 10:59 PM
45.36%
chance
45
3009
Option
Votes
NO
YES
971
971
Will a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August 2026?
Feb 18, 6:17 PM
Jul 31, 11:59 PM
37.73%
chance
11
1223
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1285
778
Will my JobScrub 👻 browser extension for Indeed.com have 20 premium users by the end of 2026? (Ṁ1k subsidy)
Dec 2, 6:56 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
68.92%
chance
3
894
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1489
671
Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?
Jun 15, 12:04 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
44.93%
chance
7
176
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1107
903
Will a major US newspaper with at least 150 years of history partner with a top LLM (top ten by usage) by mid '29
Mar 7, 10:25 PM
Jul 1, 6:59 AM
56%
chance
3
128
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1128
886
Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?
May 2, 4:30 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
40.19%
chance
1
22
Option
Votes
YES
NO
122
82
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