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Prediction markets for DeepMind

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.43%chance

3711745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8402

653

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

52.59%chance

767314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2494

1805

Will Google DeepMind cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Jul 9, 11:21 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM

3.99%chance

333202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2600

982

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

6.58%chance

172783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2674

766

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.98%chance

261550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1595

298

By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?

Dec 2, 8:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38.66%chance

251521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

871

Is a room temperature superconducting crystal within the DeepMind-predicted dataset?

Dec 14, 3:49 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.83%chance

121370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

946

Which of the following breakthroughs will Deepmind achieve by 2030?

Mar 1, 10:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

271156

OptionProbability

Find a room temperature superconductor, highly efficient photovoltaic cells, or an ultra-strong lightweight material

Find a cure for cancer, Alzheimer's or Diabetis

29

23

Will a top brand smartphone feature a DeepMind crystal material before 2028?

Nov 30, 9:00 PMJan 14, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

161070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

878

Will any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027?

Aug 10, 9:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

96.59%chance

5495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

533

19

Will "AGI Safety & Alignment @ Google DeepMind is h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 21, 7:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.53%chance

2107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

89

DeepMind's DiLoCo - how big of a blow to compute governance?

Jan 5, 11:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.34%chance

399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

49

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