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Prediction markets for DeepMind Gemini

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Nov 27, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

144373

OptionProbability

Anthropic / Claude

Alphabet / Google Deepmind / Gemini

OpenAI / ChatGPT

xAI / Grok

Meta / Llama

DeepSeek

Microsoft

Mistral

Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Apple

100

100

70

33

11

8

5

2

1

1

Google Gemini 4 release date?

Nov 18, 5:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

322986

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2027

Before Apr 2027

Before Jul 2027

Before Oct 2027

Before Jan 2028

Before Apr 2026

Before Jul 2026

Before Oct 2026

99

99

99

99

99

1

1

1

Will a Google Deepmind model be ranked in the top 3 models at the end of 2026?

Aug 17, 5:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.92%chance

222242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1396

716

Who will solve P = NP?

Oct 28, 12:50 AMJan 1, 12:48 AM

6463

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google (gemini or deepmind)

Other

Human

37

19

18

17

9

Will any European model listed on arena.ai agent arena have a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by end 2026?

Sep 12, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.04%chance

7203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

Which lab will top Epoch AI's Capabilities Index (ECI) on November 30, 2026?

Oct 31, 2:58 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

7115

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google DeepMind

Other organization

47

42

7

4

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