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Prediction markets for DeepSeek AI

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.58%chance

7132050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25925

4669

Another MechaHitler in one month?

Jul 10, 12:44 PMOct 10, 12:39 PM

18.53%chance

17117754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2097

477

Did DeepSeek receive unannounced assistance from OpenAI in the creation of their v3 model?

Jan 22, 1:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7.51%chance

268890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

285

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

Apr 12, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.47%chance

605883

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

971

On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?

Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.5%chance

233794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1584

631

will DeepSeek become a closed AI lab by EOY?

Jan 27, 3:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

24.89%chance

273318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1737

576

XRP price above $6.9 by December 31st, 2025

Feb 20, 4:25 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

15.98%chance

51810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2293

436

At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.4%chance

71077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1670

599

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.77%chance

9913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

"Holy shit!" -> my reaction to deepseek r1. Will I feel the same about any AI developments in the next 5 months?

Jun 28, 4:09 AMNov 28, 4:08 AM

53.7%chance

17762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

929

2025 SOTA LLM releases cause Kokotajlo to increase AGI timeline estimate?

Apr 9, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.14%chance

14159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

DeepSeek releases new AI model before August 15?

Jul 24, 9:34 AMAug 14, 11:59 PM

22.34%chance

8151

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

54

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