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Prediction markets for DeepSeek AI

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.67%chance

112450

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3168

2299

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

Jan 5, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

271487

OptionProbability

Google

Anthropic

OpenAI

DeepSeek

Meta

xAI

Moonshot AI

Z.ai

Other

Mistral AI

Alibaba

MiniMax

46

30

19

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will a Chinese AI model trigger another "DeepSeek moment" before December 2026?

Nov 6, 1:50 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

18.58%chance

14409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

48

Which LLM has more parameters?

Mar 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5262

OptionProbability

GPT-4.5

Grok 3

91

9

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

7248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

58

Will DeepSeek v5 release before 2028

Aug 3, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.2%chance

3232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

322

31

Any leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.14%chance

7174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

When will Reflection AI release its first open-weight model?

Oct 5, 10:04 AMNov 16, 7:59 AM

481

OptionProbability

Oct 13 to Oct 19

By Oct 12, 2026

Oct 20 to Oct 31

Nov 1 to Nov 15

Not by Nov 15, 2026

76

6

6

6

6

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Group relative rewards in RL (e.g. GRPO) teaches AIs to be spiteful, in publication by EOY 2027.

Sep 27, 7:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.17%chance

230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

128

78

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