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Prediction markets for DeepSeek AI

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

43805

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

19

16

12

12

12

10

10

10

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

2 of the top 5 AI's are open source at eoy 2027? (ECI)

Jul 24, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

7898

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3466

2193

Which company has the best LLM at the end of 2026? (Artificial analysis leaderboard)

Jan 5, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21889

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Moonshot AI

Google

xAI

Other

DeepSeek

Meta

Mistral AI

Alibaba

MiniMax

Z.ai

42

35

7

6

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026?

Apr 14, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.74%chance

7479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

143

70

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Feb 16, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75.93%chance

10317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

56

Will DeepSeek v5 release before 2028

Aug 3, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.2%chance

3232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

322

31

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.16%chance

5144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Any leading Chinese AI lab (e.g. Deepseek, Moonshot, Zhipu) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.2%chance

6134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Will China overtake the US in frontier AI by EOY 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027

Mar 3, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.3%chance

452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

75

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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