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Prediction markets for DeepSeek AI

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.78%chance

7553121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46557

2925

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

Apr 12, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.36%chance

14728152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2663

376

When will Deepseek V4 be released?

Mar 25, 12:16 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

3014165

OptionProbability

January-February 2026

March-April 2026

July 2026 or later (never)

May-June 2026

November-December 2025

March-April 2025

May-June 2025

July-August 2025

September-October 2025

41

22

15

11

8

1

1

1

1

XRP price above $6.9 by December 31st, 2025

Feb 20, 4:25 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

1%chance

911156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Did DeepSeek receive unannounced assistance from OpenAI in the creation of their v3 model?

Jan 22, 1:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7.51%chance

268890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

285

On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?

Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.87%chance

267287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3022

331

will DeepSeek become a closed AI lab by EOY?

Jan 27, 3:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

12.16%chance

324268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2687

372

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025? (Freely accessible models only)

Apr 11, 2:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.58%chance

421788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

At end of 2025, one of the top five software engineering AIs will be exclusively used by 100 or fewer tech companies

Feb 6, 3:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.68%chance

91308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1901

526

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.98%chance

10965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Which LLM has more parameters?

Mar 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5262

OptionProbability

GPT-4.5

Grok 3

91

9

Will Cloud Providers see greater revenue growth in 2025 than AI companies?

Apr 18, 5:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

324

OptionProbability

Yes

No

51

49

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