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Prediction markets for DeepSeek R1

When will Deepseek R2 be released?

Mar 25, 12:18 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

4219306

OptionProbability

July 2026 or later (never)

March-June 2026

December 2025-February 2026

March-May 2025

June-August 2025

September-November 2025

53

24

21

1

1

1

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.99%chance

376383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5698

175

First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?

Jun 6, 2:22 AMJan 1, 3:11 AM

345688

OptionProbability

Other

Gemini 3.0

Gemini 3.5

Grok 4.5

GPT-6

GPT-5.5

Gemini 2.5

Claude 4.5

GPT 5

Grok 4.1

GPT-5.1

Claude 5

ChatGPT 4o

o3

Claude 4

Grok 3.5

o4

Deepseek r1

Deepseek r2

Deepseek v3

Deepseek v4

GPT-4.1 or similar

Claude 4.1 or similar

Gemini 2.7 or similar

Grok 4

43

26

15

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other than ClaudePlaysPokemon, which AIs will have their own Twitch streams (>24 hrs) playing video games by EOY 2025?

Feb 27, 6:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

122458

OptionProbability

Claude 4

GPT 5

Gemini 3

Claude 4.5

Kimi-K2 Thinking

GPT 5.5

Claude 5

Grok 4

Deepseek R2

Grok 3

Gemini 2 Flash Thinking

DeepSeek R1

Kimi-K2

GPT 4.5

Llama 4

100

100

100

100

34

24

24

8

6

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.98%chance

10965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

58.13%chance

10822

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

849

Which LLM has more parameters?

Mar 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5262

OptionProbability

GPT-4.5

Grok 3

91

9

Will I believe in 1 year that DeepSeek R1 was substantially trained via distillation of a US model?

Jan 29, 6:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64.09%chance

7149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 12:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

50%chance

374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

21

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