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Prediction markets for DeepSeek R1

When will Deepseek R2 be released?

Mar 25, 12:18 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

4824747

OptionProbability

July 2026 or later (never)

March-June 2026

December 2025-February 2026

June-August 2025

September-November 2025

March-May 2025

61

35

2

1

1

0

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.52%chance

378733

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8048

124

R2 / V4-Thinking METR 50% time horizon

Aug 8, 11:09 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

188294

OptionProbability

2h - 2.5h

2.5h - 3h

1.5h - 2h

3h - 3.5h

3.5h - 4h

4h - 5h

<1.5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

>=12h

19

18

13

12

9

8

7

5

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?

Jun 6, 2:22 AMApr 1, 2:11 AM

406709

OptionProbability

Gemini 3.5

Grok 4.2

Other

Gemini 3.0

GPT-5.5

Deepseek v4

Grok 4.5

GPT-6

Claude 4.5

GPT 5

Grok 4.1

GPT-5.1

Claude 5

GPT-5.2

Gemini 2.5

ChatGPT 4o

o3

Claude 4

Grok 3.5

o4

Deepseek r1

Deepseek r2

Deepseek v3

GPT-4.1 or similar

Claude 4.1 or similar

Gemini 2.7 or similar

Grok 4

50

13

11

10

5

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79%chance

91081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.14%chance

11872

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

814

Which LLM has more parameters?

Mar 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5262

OptionProbability

GPT-4.5

Grok 3

91

9

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 12:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

40%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

30

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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