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Prediction markets for DeepSeek R1

R2 / V4-Thinking METR 50% time horizon

Aug 8, 11:09 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

3113471

OptionProbability

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

4h - 5h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

3.5h - 4h

3h - 3.5h

2h - 2.5h

<1.5h

1.5h - 2h

2.5h - 3h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

>=12h

20

16

14

13

7

6

5

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.52%chance

398835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8049

124

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

68.48%chance

133603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1474

678

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.34%chance

162491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2413

414

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.82%chance

11970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1368

731

Which LLM has more parameters?

Mar 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5262

OptionProbability

GPT-4.5

Grok 3

91

9

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 12:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

40%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

30

Will China or the US announce ‘AGI’ first?

Dec 18, 3:27 AMDec 18, 3:27 AM

59.84%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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