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Prediction markets for DeepSeek R2

R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date

Jan 24, 9:48 PMMar 1, 9:14 AM

12737707

OptionProbability

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-02-15

Before February 2025

Before March 2025

Before April 2025

Before May 2025

Before June 2025

Before July 2025

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before 2026

Before February 2026

86

66

44

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Deepseek R2 be released?

Mar 25, 12:18 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

4824747

OptionProbability

July 2026 or later (never)

March-June 2026

December 2025-February 2026

June-August 2025

September-November 2025

March-May 2025

61

35

2

1

1

0

Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?

Feb 10, 8:33 AMSep 30, 11:59 AM

1%chance

3413171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will DeepSeek R2 be open source?

Mar 8, 6:12 AMJun 1, 8:59 AM

94.47%chance

389151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4136

242

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.52%chance

378733

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8048

124

R2 / V4-Thinking METR 50% time horizon

Aug 8, 11:09 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

188294

OptionProbability

2h - 2.5h

2.5h - 3h

1.5h - 2h

3h - 3.5h

3.5h - 4h

4h - 5h

<1.5h

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

10h - 11h

11h - 12h

>=12h

19

18

13

12

9

8

7

5

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?

Jun 6, 2:22 AMApr 1, 2:11 AM

406709

OptionProbability

Gemini 3.5

Grok 4.2

Other

Gemini 3.0

GPT-5.5

Deepseek v4

Grok 4.5

GPT-6

Claude 4.5

GPT 5

Grok 4.1

GPT-5.1

Claude 5

GPT-5.2

Gemini 2.5

ChatGPT 4o

o3

Claude 4

Grok 3.5

o4

Deepseek r1

Deepseek r2

Deepseek v3

GPT-4.1 or similar

Claude 4.1 or similar

Gemini 2.7 or similar

Grok 4

50

13

11

10

5

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

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