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Prediction markets for DeepSeek R2

R2 / V4-Thinking (DeepSeek) release date

Jan 24, 9:48 PMMar 31, 8:14 AM

14743241

OptionProbability

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before February 2025

Before March 2025

Before April 2025

Before May 2025

Before June 2025

Before July 2025

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before 2026

Before February 2026

Before 2026-03-01

Before 2026-02-15

Before 2026-03-16

71

52

5

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Deepseek R2 be released?

Mar 25, 12:18 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

5226597

OptionProbability

March-June 2026

July 2026 or later (never)

June-August 2025

September-November 2025

December 2025-February 2026

March-May 2025

77

20

1

1

1

0

R2 / V4-Thinking METR 50% time horizon

Aug 8, 11:09 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

3013311

OptionProbability

5h - 6h

6h - 7h

7h - 8h

4h - 5h

8h - 9h

9h - 10h

3.5h - 4h

3h - 3.5h

2h - 2.5h

1.5h - 2h

2.5h - 3h

10h - 11h

<1.5h

11h - 12h

>=12h

13

12

12

11

11

10

7

5

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?

Feb 10, 8:33 AMSep 30, 11:59 AM

1.02%chance

3513172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9852

102

Will DeepSeek R2 be open source?

Mar 8, 6:12 AMJun 1, 8:59 AM

94.47%chance

389151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4136

242

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.5%chance

398784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8099

123

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