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Prediction markets for DeepSeek V3

When will Deepseek V4 be released?

Mar 25, 12:16 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

3821840

OptionProbability

January-February 2026

March-April 2026

May-June 2026

July 2026 or later (never)

March-April 2025

May-June 2025

July-August 2025

November-December 2025

September-October 2025

47

33

11

5

1

1

1

1

0

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.52%chance

378733

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8048

124

First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?

Jun 6, 2:22 AMApr 1, 2:11 AM

406709

OptionProbability

Gemini 3.5

Grok 4.2

Other

Gemini 3.0

GPT-5.5

Deepseek v4

Grok 4.5

GPT-6

Claude 4.5

GPT 5

Grok 4.1

GPT-5.1

Claude 5

GPT-5.2

Gemini 2.5

ChatGPT 4o

o3

Claude 4

Grok 3.5

o4

Deepseek r1

Deepseek r2

Deepseek v3

GPT-4.1 or similar

Claude 4.1 or similar

Gemini 2.7 or similar

Grok 4

50

13

11

10

5

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79%chance

91081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Will Deepseek release Deepseek V3.3?

Sep 30, 12:16 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

19.7%chance

5565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

50

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.54%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Which LLM has more parameters?

Mar 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5262

OptionProbability

GPT-4.5

Grok 3

91

9

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 12:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

40%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

30

What will be true of the announced EU-funded OpenEuroLLM?

Feb 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

445

OptionProbability

It will be better than Phi-4

It will be released before 2027

It will be better than LLama-3.3-70B-Instruct

It will be released before 2026

It will be better than Deepseek-V3

50

45

31

30

25

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