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Prediction markets for DeepSeek V3

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.58%chance

7132050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25925

4669

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

Jun 1, 10:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6822729

OptionProbability

Llama 4

Claude 4(any version)

Gemini 2

Grok 2

Claude 4 Opus

Phi 4

Gemini 2.5 Pro Deep Think

Gemini 3

DeepSeek-R2

DeepSeek Coder V3

Claude 5

Gemini 1.5 Ultra

100

100

100

100

100

100

97

23

17

14

5

1

Did DeepSeek receive unannounced assistance from OpenAI in the creation of their v3 model?

Jan 22, 1:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7.51%chance

268890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

285

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.98%chance

366279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5703

175

When will Deepseek V4 be released?

Mar 25, 12:16 AMJun 30, 10:59 PM

124511

On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?

Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.5%chance

233794

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1584

631

Will there be an open replication of DeepSeek v3 for <$10m?

Jan 27, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.84%chance

223112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1309

764

First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?

Jun 6, 2:22 AMJan 1, 3:11 AM

162502

OptionProbability

Gemini 3.0

GPT 5

Other

Gemini 2.5

o3

Claude 4.5

o4

Deepseek r2

Deepseek v4

Grok 4

ChatGPT 4o

Claude 4

Grok 3.5

Deepseek r1

Deepseek v3

GPT-4.1 or similar

Claude 4.1 or similar

Gemini 2.7 or similar

39

30

20

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

How much did DeepSeek V3 cost to create?

Jan 28, 10:27 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

12527

OptionProbability

>$6M, <=$100M

<=$6M

>$100M, <=$1B

>$1B, <=$10B

>$10B, <=$100B

$100B+

51

23

8

6

6

5

Which LLM has more parameters?

Mar 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5262

OptionProbability

GPT-4.5

Grok 3

91

9

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 12:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

50%chance

374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

21

What will be true of the announced EU-funded OpenEuroLLM?

Feb 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

339

OptionProbability

It will be released before 2027

It will be better than Phi-4

It will be better than LLama-3.3-70B-Instruct

It will be released before 2026

It will be better than Deepseek-V3

50

50

31

30

30

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