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Prediction markets for DeepSeek V3

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

4.78%chance

7553121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

46557

2925

Did DeepSeek receive unannounced assistance from OpenAI in the creation of their v3 model?

Jan 22, 1:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7.51%chance

268890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

285

On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?

Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.28%chance

266937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2672

374

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.99%chance

376383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5698

175

First model series to cross 1500 on lmarena.ai?

Jun 6, 2:22 AMJan 1, 3:11 AM

345688

OptionProbability

Other

Gemini 3.0

Gemini 3.5

Grok 4.5

GPT-6

GPT-5.5

Gemini 2.5

Claude 4.5

GPT 5

Grok 4.1

GPT-5.1

Claude 5

ChatGPT 4o

o3

Claude 4

Grok 3.5

o4

Deepseek r1

Deepseek r2

Deepseek v3

Deepseek v4

GPT-4.1 or similar

Claude 4.1 or similar

Gemini 2.7 or similar

Grok 4

43

26

15

4

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be an open replication of DeepSeek v3 for <$10m?

Jan 27, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.44%chance

233562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1189

841

Will DeepSeek V3.2 get >145 on the Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI)?

Dec 2, 1:10 AMJan 1, 1:09 AM

38%chance

4597

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

783

How much did DeepSeek V3 cost to create?

Jan 28, 10:27 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

12527

OptionProbability

>$6M, <=$100M

<=$6M

>$100M, <=$1B

>$1B, <=$10B

>$10B, <=$100B

$100B+

52

23

8

6

6

4

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.54%chance

10274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will Deepseek release Deepseek V3.3?

Sep 30, 12:16 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

20%chance

3100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 12:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

50%chance

374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

21

What will be true of the announced EU-funded OpenEuroLLM?

Feb 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

445

OptionProbability

It will be better than Phi-4

It will be released before 2027

It will be better than LLama-3.3-70B-Instruct

It will be released before 2026

It will be better than Deepseek-V3

50

45

31

30

25

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