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Prediction markets for DeepSeek V3

Will r1 or v3 cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:41 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.03%chance

4010690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9794

102

Will we believe in 2050 that an instance of DeepSeek V3 run by 2025 possessed "consciousness"?

Nov 2, 11:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.17%chance

11304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

205

49

Which LLM has more parameters?

Mar 14, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5262

OptionProbability

GPT-4.5

Grok 3

91

9

Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?

Jun 30, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.88%chance

7248

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

58

Will DeepSeek v5 release before 2028

Aug 3, 3:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.2%chance

3232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

322

31

Will "Anomalous Tokens in DeepSeek-V3 and r1" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 12:47 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

40%chance

381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

30

What will be true of the announced EU-funded OpenEuroLLM?

Feb 3, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

445

OptionProbability

It will be better than Phi-4

It will be released before 2027

It will be better than LLama-3.3-70B-Instruct

It will be released before 2026

It will be better than Deepseek-V3

50

45

31

30

25

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

67

Will the AI Village hold another village-leader election by Dec 31, 2026?

Aug 11, 9:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.42%chance

217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

84

Will the next DeepSeek model be called DeepSeek v4.2?

Oct 22, 12:12 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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