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Top stories

Baidu Overhauls Search with 1,000+ Word AI Input, Chatbot Responses and Launches Enterprise-Focused MuseSteamer Amid DeepSeek Rivalry

Baidu Overhauls Search with 1,000+ Word AI Input, Chatbot Responses and Launches Enterprise-Focused MuseSteamer Amid DeepSeek Rivalry

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20

1 month ago

Prediction markets for DeepSeek

Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?

Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

12.58%chance

7132050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25925

4669

Will DeepSeek go on Dwarkesh Podcast in 2025?

Jan 22, 6:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.83%chance

4824718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25942

6512

Did DeepSeek receive unannounced assistance from OpenAI in the creation of their v3 model?

Jan 22, 1:26 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7.51%chance

268890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3509

285

Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

7.29%chance

507901

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5386

489

will DeepSeek become a closed AI lab by EOY?

Jan 27, 3:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

24.89%chance

273318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1737

576

Will there be an open replication of DeepSeek v3 for <$10m?

Jan 27, 7:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.84%chance

223112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1309

764

Will DeepSeek R2 be open source?

Mar 8, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.44%chance

272813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2244

446

DeepSeek open-source frontier model after 3/23/26?

Mar 25, 1:21 PMMar 23, 11:59 PM

48.27%chance

192251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

When DeepSeek drops r2, will the NASDAQ drop?

Mar 11, 1:06 PMSep 19, 3:59 AM

53.71%chance

381743

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

928

Did DeepSeek violate OpenAI's terms of service by using OpenAI model outputs for distillation in 2024 or January 2025?

Jan 30, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.35%chance

81080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1864

536

"Holy shit!" -> my reaction to deepseek r1. Will I feel the same about any AI developments in the next 5 months?

Jun 28, 4:09 AMNov 28, 4:08 AM

53.7%chance

17762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1077

929

Will DeepSeek remain available on US iOS App Store until January 1, 2026? (no ban or removal)

Jan 27, 2:10 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

79.91%chance

33738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

50

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