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Top stories

Fitch Affirms US AA+ Rating, Cites Tariff-Driven Growth Risks

Fitch Affirms US AA+ Rating, Cites Tariff-Driven Growth Risks

Authors

12

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Default

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

Apr 7, 9:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.46%chance

66127681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

82260

1216

Next airline to default

Nov 20, 7:54 PMDec 20, 7:47 PM

1621915

OptionProbability

JetBlue

No default amongst those listed before 2030

Frontier

Bermudair

Avelo

United

American

Southwest

Alaska

Air Canada

Ryanair

Qantas

Cathay Pacific

KLM

Turkish Airlines

Qatar Airlines

Virgin Atlantic

Iberia

LATAM

Aeromexico

Allegiant Air

Breeze

Sun Country

Lufthansa

Emirates

Singapore Airlines

ANA

Air New Zealand

23

17

17

5

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Air Baltic defaults on 2024 14.5% EUR bond before August 14, 2029?

Apr 22, 8:31 PMAug 13, 11:59 PM

95.36%chance

177548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4531

221

Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?

Nov 15, 10:06 AMDec 31, 11:30 PM

74.18%chance

415684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1558

698

Technical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029

Feb 11, 12:05 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

15.96%chance

275012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2295

436

Will AI write 75%+ of social media view-generating posts (default to Twitter) by EOY 2026?

Oct 22, 2:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.52%chance

292144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1828

872

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

Feb 4, 9:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.76%chance

91855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2228

449

Will Coinbase default on its debt?

Nov 17, 1:52 AMOct 2, 4:59 AM

12.17%chance

141645

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1435

909

Will humanity exit the semi-anarchic default condition before 2035?

May 27, 2:32 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

161362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

589

Will "Alignment will happen by default. What’s next?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 28, 4:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.46%chance

3857

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1830

906

NYTimes changes default pronoun assumptions in English to "They" from "He/She"

Mar 14, 4:52 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

65.28%chance

14330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

978

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