OptionProbability
The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic
The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"
Anthropic files a lawsuit against the federal government
A judge grants an injunction against the Department of War
An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation
OpenAI signs a contract substantially weaker than Anthropic's requirements
The Department of War signs a deal to use OpenAI models instead
Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before 2027
The supply chain risk designation is officially issued
An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation And survives unblocked by other courts for 6 months
Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before July
The government offers the same terms to Anthropic as to OpenAI
Resignation letter signed by at least 5 OpenAI employees
Anthropic's contract is publicly available
US company with >100B total valuation cancels some Pentagon contract and uses Anthropic supply chain risk designation as stated justification
OpenAI's new contract is publicly available
The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act
Dario Amodei leaves or is removed from Anthropic
Anthropic gives the government unfettered access of their own accord (they "cave in")
The Pentagon designates Anthropic a supply chain risk, AND invokes the Defense Production Act
Autonomous weapon + surveillance Claude safeguards are removed for the Pentagon
Resignation letter signed by at least 5 Anthropic researchers
Will Amazon have to divest / break with Anthropic in 2026?
Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities
The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes (autonomous weapon + mass surveillance of americans)
The Pentagon and Anthropic come to some form of mutual settlement by the Friday deadline
100
84
81
69
68
67
58
25
16
12
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
13402
7535
Anthropic is designated as a supply chain risk
Anthropic's Pentagon contract is canceled
Donald Trump publicly comments on the conflict (by March 15)
A non-Anthropic LLM is deployed and accessible to end users on classified Pentagon networks
Anthropic agrees to "all lawful use" of their models (or it is otherwise made clear that no use restrictions on the models will be in effect)
Defense Production Act used to compel Anthropic
More than 10 Anthropic employees publicly state that they're leaving due to (or partially due to) the result of this conflict
The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes
97
11
1031
884
368
27
Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives
Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)
Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs
Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies
Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies
55
53
51
50
28
1119
949