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Prediction markets for Definitive

Will definitive evidence emerge that Justin Trudeau is actually Fidel Castro’s biological son?

Feb 11, 4:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.44%chance

7412353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1975

1087

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

47

39

39

30

25

21

19

If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

40.49%chance

397876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1212

825

If a definitive genetic study of race and intelligence gets performed, what will the W/B genetic g difference be?

Mar 7, 9:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.73%chance

133620

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1102

936

Will the New York Times declare that there is definitive proof of non-Earth-originating life by 2030?

Jul 27, 3:58 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.31%chance

463582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2941

761

Will there be a widely accepted precise definition of mesaoptimizer by 2026?

Oct 22, 7:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.62%chance

321048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1507

1257

Will there be a well accepted formal definition of value alignment for AI by 2030?

Oct 4, 4:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

24.72%chance

23709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1179

913

Under Hawley's proposed law, would the generative AI definition apply to curation algorithms like YouTube or Facebook?

Dec 6, 10:18 PMMar 16, 3:59 AM

8%chance

14604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

953

Trump announces another "big announcement" with no definitive follow-up again in 2025?

May 22, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.39%chance

9317

OptionVotes

NO

YES

885

544

If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?

Oct 10, 10:11 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12236

OptionProbability

Other

Nick Szabo

Hal Finney

Dorian Nakamoto

Len Sassaman

Wei Dai

Adam Back

Paul Le Roux

Multiple People

Craig Wright

60

17

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

1

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM

45.8%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

924

“Will we discover definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2030

Dec 7, 10:07 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

17.79%chance

3115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1115

947

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