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Prediction markets for Definitive

Will definitive evidence emerge that Justin Trudeau is actually Fidel Castro’s biological son?

Feb 11, 4:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.47%chance

7412365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1963

1087

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1211837

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

70

52

39

30

19

5

If Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

56%chance

4610551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

128484

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

79

64

56

50

49

47

40

39

30

25

21

19

If a definitive genetic study of race and intelligence gets performed, what will the W/B genetic g difference be?

Mar 7, 9:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

66.73%chance

133620

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1102

936

Will the New York Times declare that there is definitive proof of non-Earth-originating life by 2030?

Jul 27, 3:58 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5.31%chance

463582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2941

761

Will there be a well accepted formal definition of value alignment for AI by 2030?

Oct 4, 4:12 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

23.63%chance

24759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

897

Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?

Mar 7, 12:54 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM

10%chance

11650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

631

170

Under Hawley's proposed law, would the generative AI definition apply to curation algorithms like YouTube or Facebook?

Dec 6, 10:18 PMMar 16, 3:59 AM

8%chance

14604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1163

953

“Will we discover definitive evidence of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2030

Dec 7, 10:07 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

20.17%chance

6515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

985

977

The legal free-for-all that characterized the first few years of the AI boom will be definitively over in 2026

Jan 2, 7:40 AMJan 6, 7:59 AM

52.92%chance

6475

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

943

Will the definitive function/purpose of the Roman Dodecahedron be identified before March 6th, 2035?

Mar 6, 5:20 PMMar 7, 6:59 AM

45.8%chance

5122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

924

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