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Top stories

Trump Says He Backs FCC Revoking ABC, NBC Licenses

US Domestic Policy

Trump Says He Backs FCC Revoking ABC, NBC Licenses

Authors

44

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Democracy

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

8.77%chance

793414172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14104

2043

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)

Feb 23, 9:36 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

34.84%chance

21546413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1691

352

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

8010795

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

60

30

8

2

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2389

1500

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

44.34%chance

344924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

892

Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 13, 5:56 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM

14.83%chance

493623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1519

859

Will the US be a democracy in 2050?

Dec 23, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.67%chance

1063535

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2193

1306

Will the USA be a democracy in 2040?

May 11, 8:56 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

72.97%chance

223279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

567

101

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Mar 25, 6:32 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.93%chance

491642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

908

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.74%chance

291508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

920

Will the United States exist as a stable, independent democracy by 2100?

Dec 22, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

51.37%chance

211178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

741

Will China be a democracy in 2050?

Dec 23, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34%chance

261163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

973

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