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Top stories

Trump Says He Backs FCC Revoking ABC, NBC Licenses

US Domestic Policy

Trump Says He Backs FCC Revoking ABC, NBC Licenses

Authors

44

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Democracy

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

22%chance

783394355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7386

3139

If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)

Feb 23, 9:36 PMJan 21, 10:59 PM

9.99%chance

20942181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2626

113

How will Venezuela be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?

Jan 3, 12:27 PMJan 30, 11:59 PM

799415

OptionProbability

Authoritarian regime

Hybrid regime

Flawed democracy

Full democracy

58

30

11

1

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

5.2%chance

928379

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2389

1500

Will the United States degrade into a 'Hybrid Regime' on the Economist Democracy Index before 2040?

Jun 20, 10:38 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

44.07%chance

334919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1127

888

Will the US be a democracy in 2050?

Dec 23, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.63%chance

1063448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2280

1132

Will at least 20% of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 13, 5:56 PMMar 2, 7:59 AM

18.06%chance

483373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1269

908

Will the USA be a democracy in 2040?

May 11, 8:56 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

72.97%chance

223279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

567

101

Will India be a democracy in 2050?

Dec 23, 5:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.46%chance

252504

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1432

767

By 2033, Will an AI be elected to public office in a democracy?

Mar 25, 6:32 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

26.93%chance

491642

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

908

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

43.68%chance

281402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

901

Will the United States exist as a stable, independent democracy by 2100?

Dec 22, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

51.37%chance

211178

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

741

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