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Prediction markets for Descript

[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]

Nov 6, 11:25 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

49%chance

524373040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

98

Is the "100% effective against solid tumors" cancer pill AOH1996 paper legit? [see description]

Aug 2, 10:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.63%chance

48090212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7394

4937

Will the Nintendo Switch 2 be softmodded before June 5, 2026? [read description]

May 31, 2:08 PMJun 5, 4:59 AM

5%chance

2611134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3569

66

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

46

39

39

30

25

21

19

Will a Boom Supersonic beat SpaceX to COMMERCIAL super-sonic suborbital flight? (see description for terms)

Dec 9, 4:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.79%chance

131939

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

857

Will solar geoengineering techniques be deployed at any significant scale by 2030? [details in description]

Oct 30, 3:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.39%chance

231444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

689

If I submit this possible grammar error (in description) to Eliezer Yudkowsky, will he say it's not actually an error?

Apr 3, 3:18 AMDec 9, 12:59 AM

22.17%chance

241245

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1841

553

MLB gets salary cap before next-next season? [READ DESCRIPTION]

Nov 9, 7:48 AMApr 14, 11:59 PM

29.33%chance

9815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1552

644

Will an LLM Built on a State Space Model Architecture Have Been SOTA at any Point before EOY 2027? [READ DESCRIPTION]

Dec 25, 1:31 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

38.74%chance

15602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1457

709

📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?

Sep 11, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.72%chance

16465

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1156

933

Will Zoox obtain a permit to operate paid driverless robotaxis in CA from the CPUC by the end of 2026 [description]

Jan 27, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.76%chance

4380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

882

Legacy Market, See Description for Resolution Criteria

Mar 19, 3:21 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

50%chance

19150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

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