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Prediction markets for Designated Player

In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?

Aug 25, 11:10 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.15%chance

515962

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2367

423

Will AI reach human-level performance in Magic: The Gathering before 2026?

Sep 10, 4:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.42%chance

413634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2587

213

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will the MLB change the official rules in order to limit or ban the "torpedo bat" by opening day 2026?

Apr 1, 4:19 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

15.35%chance

131563

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2348

426

Will I have developed a decent incremental game before the end of 2025?

Sep 27, 4:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

19.14%chance

171093

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1817

683

Will an autonomous humanoid robot consistently defeat top tennis players by 2040?

Mar 17, 4:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.16%chance

15376

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

184

Tennis-like sport played on another planet or in space by end 2036

Oct 8, 6:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.15%chance

13328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

945

Major racquet sports tourney uses robot servers

Apr 29, 9:01 AMJun 30, 8:47 AM

51.5%chance

270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

971

How many C919 airliners will Comac deliver by 2045?

May 29, 12:00 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

70.97%chance

344

OptionProbability

NO

YES

300

257

Will the Su-75 have entered service in Russia by the end of 2033?

Jun 6, 9:19 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

35.02%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

91

55

Will the HAL AMCA have entered service in India by the end of 2035?

Jun 6, 9:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity

Feb 16, 11:53 PM

240

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