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Prediction markets for Desktop

Will 2026 be the year of the Linux desktop?

Jan 6, 7:06 AMDec 31, 8:59 PM

6.48%chance

198590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

380

26

Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop

Dec 26, 7:45 PMJan 2, 7:54 AM

92.95%chance

564271

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2482

781

Linux Desktop surpasses >10% marketshare before >10% of US population use VR daily.

Aug 3, 10:51 AMAug 11, 4:59 AM

57.94%chance

241667

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

852

Will Windows's desktop market share in 2026 be at least 5% lower than in 2024?

Mar 18, 5:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76%chance

20890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

476

92

What instruction set architecture will have the plurality of desktop CPU sales in 2034?

Nov 14, 2:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21761

OptionProbability

X86

ARM

RISC-V

Other

55

40

5

1

When will Windows Market Share fall below 50% on desktop?

May 7, 7:34 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4590

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2027

2035

2026

After 2035

12

11

11

10

10

10

10

8

7

6

6

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?

Nov 19, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.48%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

843

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2027?

Feb 3, 11:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.63%chance

8225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

68

Microsoft ships a Linux desktop by 2032?

Nov 20, 8:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.56%chance

9214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Will desktop CPUs using Zen 7 be on the AM5 platform?

Jun 1, 1:58 PMJan 1, 2:57 PM

58.35%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

119

If "mosaic" tiling becomes the default behavior of the GNOME desktop environment by 2026, will it last 1 year or more?

Sep 13, 5:33 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50%chance

353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

74

66

Will some1 create a desktop virtual assistant modeled after Jose Luis Ricon [like BonziBuddy/HP Tour Guide] by EOY 2029?

Feb 9, 3:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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