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Prediction markets for Desktop

Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop

Dec 26, 7:45 PMJan 2, 7:54 AM

90.6%chance

564835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1927

831

Linux Desktop surpasses >10% marketshare before >10% of US population use VR daily.

Aug 3, 10:51 AMAug 11, 4:59 AM

57.94%chance

241667

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

852

Will Windows's desktop market share in 2026 be at least 5% lower than in 2024?

Mar 18, 5:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.48%chance

21940

OptionVotes

NO

YES

526

78

What instruction set architecture will have the plurality of desktop CPU sales in 2034?

Nov 14, 2:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21761

OptionProbability

X86

ARM

RISC-V

Other

55

40

5

1

What process node will AMD use for the Zen 6 desktop CPU cores?

Jun 24, 7:21 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

3664

OptionProbability

TSMC N2P

TSMC N2

TSMC 2nm (Other)

Other

TSMC N3

TSMC N3E

TSMC N3P

TSMC N3X

TSMC N2X

TSMC N4

TSMC N4X

37

24

21

4

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

Google resurrects Google Desktop by EOY2028?

Apr 12, 3:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.78%chance

7602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

592

17

When will Windows Market Share fall below 50% on desktop?

May 7, 7:34 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4590

OptionProbability

2029

2028

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2027

2035

2026

After 2035

12

11

11

10

10

10

10

8

7

6

6

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?

Nov 19, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.48%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

843

Microsoft ships a Linux desktop by 2032?

Nov 20, 8:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.56%chance

9214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Will Blizzard create an Apple Silicon-native version of the Battle.net desktop app by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.86%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

199

50

If "mosaic" tiling becomes the default behavior of the GNOME desktop environment by 2026, will it last 1 year or more?

Sep 13, 5:33 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50%chance

353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

74

66

Will desktop Zen 6 launch in 2026?

Feb 22, 1:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.34%chance

223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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