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Prediction markets for Desktop

Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop

Dec 26, 7:45 PMJan 2, 7:54 AM

76.48%chance

502480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

803

Will OpenAI demo a desktop or browser assistant that automates white-collar tasks before 2026?

Mar 28, 9:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.64%chance

391771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1353

824

Will handheld or desktop monitors become obsolete by the end of 2025?

Jul 30, 6:29 PMDec 31, 8:01 PM

8.39%chance

141270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1671

894

Linux Desktop surpasses >10% marketshare before >10% of US population use VR daily.

Aug 3, 10:51 AMAug 11, 4:59 AM

37%chance

221187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1305

766

What instruction set architecture will have the plurality of desktop CPU sales in 2034?

Nov 14, 2:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21761

OptionProbability

X86

ARM

RISC-V

Other

55

40

5

1

Will "mosaic" style tiling become the default behavior of the GNOME desktop environment at any point before 2026?

Sep 13, 5:19 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.52%chance

9495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

342

24

Will Intel or Amd announce an Arm-based desktop processor before 1 Jan 2026?

Mar 11, 5:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 PM

3.62%chance

9492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

516

19

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?

Nov 19, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.48%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

843

What process node will AMD use for the Zen 6 desktop CPU cores?

Jun 24, 7:21 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

2113

OptionProbability

TSMC N3E

TSMC N2X

TSMC N2

TSMC N2P

TSMC N3

TSMC N3P

TSMC N3X

Other

TSMC N4

TSMC N4X

29

14

11

11

6

6

6

6

5

5

Will desktop CPUs using Zen 7 be on the AM5 platform?

Jun 1, 1:58 PMJan 1, 2:57 PM

30.04%chance

273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

215

95

Will someone from sundai.club get a Nvidia's Project Digits desktop AI supercomputer by EOY2025?

Feb 12, 3:36 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69%chance

459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will some1 create a desktop virtual assistant modeled after Jose Luis Ricon [like BonziBuddy/HP Tour Guide] by EOY 2029?

Feb 9, 3:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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