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Prediction markets for Desktop

Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop

Dec 26, 7:45 PMJan 2, 7:54 AM

90.58%chance

564832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1924

831

Linux Desktop surpasses >10% marketshare before >10% of US population use VR daily.

Aug 3, 10:51 AMAug 11, 4:59 AM

57.94%chance

241667

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1174

852

Will Windows's desktop market share in 2026 be at least 5% lower than in 2024?

Mar 18, 5:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76%chance

20890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

476

92

Google resurrects Google Desktop by EOY2028?

Apr 12, 3:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.78%chance

7602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

592

17

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?

Nov 19, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.48%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

843

Will desktop CPUs using Zen 7 be on the AM5 platform?

Jun 1, 1:58 PMJan 1, 2:57 PM

70%chance

2249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

220

92

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2027?

Feb 3, 11:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.93%chance

11239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

157

64

Microsoft ships a Linux desktop by 2032?

Nov 20, 8:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.56%chance

9214

OptionVotes

YES

NO

233

43

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 3, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.73%chance

9178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

If "mosaic" tiling becomes the default behavior of the GNOME desktop environment by 2026, will it last 1 year or more?

Sep 13, 5:33 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50%chance

353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

74

66

Will some1 create a desktop virtual assistant modeled after Jose Luis Ricon [like BonziBuddy/HP Tour Guide] by EOY 2029?

Feb 9, 3:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Intel Nova Lake Desktop CPU launches by?

Apr 5, 7:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

144

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q1 2027

Q4 2026

Q3 2026

79

66

50

34

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