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Prediction markets for Desktop

Will the year of the self-driving car happen before the year of the Linux desktop

Dec 26, 7:45 PMJan 2, 7:54 AM

92.95%chance

554269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2480

782

Linux Desktop surpasses >10% marketshare before >10% of US population use VR daily.

Aug 3, 10:51 AMAug 11, 4:59 AM

58.51%chance

231657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1188

842

What instruction set architecture will have the plurality of desktop CPU sales in 2034?

Nov 14, 2:08 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21761

OptionProbability

X86

ARM

RISC-V

Other

55

40

5

1

What process node will AMD use for the Zen 6 desktop CPU cores?

Jun 24, 7:21 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

3654

OptionProbability

TSMC N2

TSMC N2P

TSMC 2nm (Other)

Other

TSMC N2X

TSMC N4X

TSMC N3

TSMC N3E

TSMC N3P

TSMC N3X

TSMC N4

28

28

24

4

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search?

Nov 19, 8:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.48%chance

4253

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

843

Will desktop CPUs using Zen 7 be on the AM5 platform?

Jun 1, 1:58 PMJan 1, 2:57 PM

58.35%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

119

Zen 6 desktop CPU with 7.00+ GHz max boost clock before 2029?

Nov 6, 9:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.24%chance

5184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

256

81

Will desktop Anki and/or AnkiDroid have paid features by Jan 1, 2028?

Feb 3, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.73%chance

9178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

75

Microsoft ships a Linux desktop by 2032?

Nov 20, 8:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.01%chance

7159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

55

If "mosaic" tiling becomes the default behavior of the GNOME desktop environment by 2026, will it last 1 year or more?

Sep 13, 5:33 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

50%chance

353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

74

66

Will some1 create a desktop virtual assistant modeled after Jose Luis Ricon [like BonziBuddy/HP Tour Guide] by EOY 2029?

Feb 9, 3:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Intel Nova Lake Desktop CPU launches by?

Apr 5, 7:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

144

OptionProbability

Q2 2027

Q1 2027

Q4 2026

Q3 2026

79

66

50

34

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