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Prediction markets for Dev

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.72%chance

708696396

OptionVotes

NO

YES

22531

4727

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

185405

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10000

10000

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2027?

Apr 8, 8:43 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

11.93%chance

393848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1748

831

Will more professional devs use Rust than C++ in the 2030 StackOverflow developer survey?

Feb 3, 5:22 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

57.51%chance

442204

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1323

633

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

38.22%chance

391916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

684

[Hololive DEV_IS ReGLOSS] Which talent will leave Hololive last?

Jan 25, 10:51 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

51245

OptionProbability

Juufuutei Raden

Todoroki Hajime

Ichijou Ririka

Otonose Kanade

Hiodoshi Ao

35

30

16

14

5

Major protest against automation/AI dev. by 2028?

Dec 27, 1:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

71.06%chance

23738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

884

AI "devops" #1: Will there be an AI that can onboard as a dev by 2028?

May 4, 8:45 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.18%chance

9370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

329

108

Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?

Apr 8, 11:04 AMApr 8, 10:59 PM

74.74%chance

18329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

960

Will Haunted Chocolatier (Stardew Valley Dev's next game) release before Jan 1st 2027?

Jan 2, 5:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.75%chance

5257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

323

31

Will Unhinged Software Devs twitter / x community be deleted by the end of 2026?

Feb 14, 5:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.75%chance

4142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

45

What will be the responsibilities of a web dev in 2030?

Jan 2, 12:32 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

580

OptionProbability

There will be no more software engineering job

There will be no web devs

Deployment, devops (choosing where it is deployed, how..)

Debugging (existing AI generated code)

Security (penetration tests...)

Unit tests

Other

38

26

11

6

6

6

6

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