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Prediction markets for Dev

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.09%chance

695662843

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18084

7003

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.6%chance

154159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13624

8759

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2027?

Apr 8, 8:43 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

11.93%chance

393848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1748

831

Will more professional devs use Rust than C++ in the 2030 StackOverflow developer survey?

Feb 3, 5:22 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

58.54%chance

442188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1345

617

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

35%chance

381866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1416

634

Major protest against automation/AI dev. by 2028?

Dec 27, 1:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

71.06%chance

23738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

884

[Hololive DEV_IS ReGLOSS] Which talent will leave Hololive last?

Jan 25, 10:51 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4641

OptionProbability

Juufuutei Raden

Todoroki Hajime

Ichijou Ririka

Otonose Kanade

Hiodoshi Ao

35

30

16

14

6

AI "devops" #1: Will there be an AI that can onboard as a dev by 2028?

May 4, 8:45 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.18%chance

9370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

329

108

Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?

Apr 8, 11:04 AMApr 8, 10:59 PM

74.74%chance

18329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

960

Will Haunted Chocolatier (Stardew Valley Dev's next game) release before Jan 1st 2027?

Jan 2, 5:50 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.75%chance

5257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

323

31

What will be the responsibilities of a web dev in 2030?

Jan 2, 12:32 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

345

OptionProbability

Deployment, devops (choosing where it is deployed, how..)

Debugging (existing AI generated code)

Security (penetration tests...)

Unit tests

Other

There will be no web devs

There will be no more software engineering job

28

14

14

14

14

10

6

Will Unhinged Software Devs twitter / x community be deleted by the end of 2026?

Feb 14, 5:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.57%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

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