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Prediction markets for Developer Day

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

80.14%chance

6116884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2008

498

Will a drug designed with significant contribution from an AlphaFold-like system pass a Phase I trial by end of 2025?

Sep 6, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.67%chance

569741

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1959

510

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

98274

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

78

64

56

50

49

46

39

39

30

25

21

19

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82.44%chance

443737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2178

414

Will I (@Bayesian) be a superforecaster before 2027?

Mar 7, 12:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.15%chance

293366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1822

549

I consider April 16, 2025, an especially important day toward AGI at EOY 2026

Apr 16, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.26%chance

233219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2269

441

Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?

Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.59%chance

212870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

865

Will I gain kernel-level privileges on my Switch 2, in 2025?

May 7, 3:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.47%chance

182462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

615

Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Apr 2, 10:01 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.13%chance

19957

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

927

Will any head of executive department appointed in the 2025-2029 Administration leave office in 2025?

Nov 10, 10:44 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

57.38%chance

11511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

862

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Will the first instance of an AI breakout that cannot be brought back under human control result in more than 1,000,000 deaths?

Jul 21, 4:28 PMDec 29, 4:59 AM

20.91%chance

17263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1136

939

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