Developer Experience News

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

Jan 25, 12:24 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

13.88%chance

21526898

OptionVotes

YES

5086

982

Will we (Mega Crit) regret making our next game in Godot?

Oct 10, 8:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.24%chance

887023

OptionVotes

YES

2254

875

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.54%chance

383908

OptionVotes

YES

7894

5344

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

YES

4193

4124

Will AI be able to feel emotions before janary 1st 2050

Jan 9, 9:09 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

35.81%chance

191060

OptionVotes

YES

1339

747

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.83%chance

22864

OptionVotes

YES

1124

534

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

May 21, 4:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.15%chance

9461

OptionVotes

YES

1430

699

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Mar 27, 5:56 PMMar 28, 4:59 AM

23.45%chance

18399

OptionVotes

YES

987

960

By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?

Nov 29, 11:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15338

OptionProbability

Intentful bodily care (sleep, water, and light exercise)

Careful tracking of burnout and allocating time and resources to explicit relaxation

Other

Stress less about general image and status

get enough sleep

write note files/.txt files/gdocs/other single document to describe what you hope to get out of each experiment, before you run it

seek worst case bounds, but distrust them

Mark's post on how to do theoretical research: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zbFGRRWPwxBwjwknY/how-to-do-theoretical-research-a-personal-perspective-1

Do more experiments. Develop research intimacy and intuition

Detroit LVT: Will newly city-owned properties experience less development than they have in prior years? (2028)

Oct 13, 3:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.6%chance

343

OptionVotes

YES

1207

1177

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 26th State Senate district

Jun 18, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Sarah Rascón

Other

Juan Camacho

Wendy Carrillo

Sara Hernandez

Maebe A. Girl (Maebe Pudlo)

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

Jul 31, 4:37 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

3/2025

4/2025

1/2026

Other

Developer Experience News

Prediction markets for Developer Experience

Prediction markets for Developer Experience

Prediction markets for Developer Experience

Will an AI produce encyclopedia-worthy philosophy by 2026?

Will we (Mega Crit) regret making our next game in Godot?

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Will AI be able to feel emotions before janary 1st 2050

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2030?

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

By the end of 2025, which piece of advice will I feel has had the most positive impact on me becoming an effective AI alignment researcher?

Detroit LVT: Will newly city-owned properties experience less development than they have in prior years? (2028)

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 26th State Senate district

In which Quarter will open the first new part of Venice MarcoPolo Airport with Gates A?

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