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Prediction markets for Developer Experience

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

May 18, 11:15 AMAug 15, 11:59 PM

2810114

OptionProbability

Other

Jon Ossoff

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gavin Newsom

Kamala Harris

Josh Shapiro

Pete Buttigieg

Andy Beshear

37

24

13

12

4

4

4

3

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.68%chance

117430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8928

3471

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

347402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

688

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

Before 2027, will a RCT find that AI improves the productivity of experienced open-source developers?

Sep 11, 1:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.78%chance

163921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

620

Will Python be replaced as the go-to programming language for AI development by the end of 2040?

Jan 5, 8:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

83.68%chance

463528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1811

685

Will a moving mirror produce light that propagates below c in vacuum by the end of 2030?

Oct 25, 10:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.65%chance

82493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3250

308

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

Will AI be able to feel emotions before janary 1st 2050

Jan 9, 9:09 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

37.59%chance

191110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1289

776

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.93%chance

23884

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

495

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Mar 27, 5:56 PMMar 28, 4:59 AM

23.85%chance

19404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

944

Detroit LVT: Will newly city-owned properties experience less development than they have in prior years? (2028)

Oct 13, 3:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.6%chance

343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

1177

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