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Prediction markets for Developer Platform

Will an American presidential candidate in 2028 run on a platform that includes nationalizing or pausing AGI?

Dec 30, 8:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.2%chance

263129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

287

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Feb 1, 4:55 PMMar 3, 11:59 PM

49.26%chance

332959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1015

985

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

16.12%chance

112352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2281

438

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.01%chance

171956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

10

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Jul 28, 8:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

181370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

920

Phoebe Bridgers releases new album by 2027

Jan 1, 8:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.83%chance

81069

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1727

581

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Will Major Copyright Reforms Affecting AI-Generated Works Be Enacted by 2026?

Nov 13, 7:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.69%chance

10668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1324

755

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

Will xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?

Feb 21, 11:39 AMFeb 21, 11:59 PM

32.47%chance

8442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1442

693

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.77%chance

5234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

976

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

3102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

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