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Top stories

Google to Verify All Android Developers from 2026, Blocking Unverified Sideloads

Google to Verify All Android Developers from 2026, Blocking Unverified Sideloads

Authors

27

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Developer Verification

Top SWE-Bench Verified score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3849969

OptionProbability

70 - 84%

85% - 95%

Above 95%

Below 70%

81

16

2

1

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2025?

Dec 26, 4:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.41%chance

17030393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7052

159

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

Dec 26, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

535035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1439

430

New York State RAISE Act becomes law?

Jun 24, 3:01 AMJan 2, 4:01 AM

69.98%chance

114551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4882

2686

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.88%chance

341837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

982

965

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3864

3220

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

34.63%chance

181220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

640

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.43%chance

14318

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

903

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

49.1%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

1035

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will there be a referendum of Worldcoin-verified voters about a global ban on frontier AI/AGI development before 2026?

Mar 14, 3:43 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

32.59%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

235

143

Develop a testable theory of quantum gravity and verify it

Feb 2, 11:46 PM

00

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