Developer Verification News

Google to Verify All Android Developers from 2026, Blocking Unverified Sideloads

7 months ago

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Mar 4, 3:00 AMJan 1, 3:50 AM

22.96%chance

98116298

OptionVotes

YES

183168

54595

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

Dec 26, 6:45 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40%chance

535035

OptionVotes

YES

1439

430

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Mar 18, 12:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.22%chance

371941

OptionVotes

YES

1047

931

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

May 25, 12:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.95%chance

91300

OptionVotes

YES

3864

3220

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

38.12%chance

191260

OptionVotes

YES

1168

570

Will a cure for fibromyalgia exist by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.43%chance

3350

OptionVotes

YES

1350

741

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

Feb 5, 2:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

34.43%chance

14318

OptionVotes

YES

1039

903

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

1095

1027

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

Which AI Hardware Governance Scenarios Will Come True?

Feb 6, 1:52 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

340

OptionProbability

Allied Coordination by 2030: There is allied coordination between key countries in the AI hardware supply chain on HEM development and/or deployment by 2030, targeting hardware security for either tamper-evident or tamper-proof HEMs.

Commercially Available HEMs by 2030: Fully tamper-evident or tamper-proof AI hardware becomes commercially available before 2030

Location Verification for US Export Controls by 2028: The US enacts location verification requirements for exported chips before 2028 (enforcement may not begin until afterward)

US-China Treaty Verification by 2030: Both the US and China sign an AI development treaty (potentially non-binding) involving HEMs by 2030

EU Market Access Conditions by 2029: The EU adopts HEM requirements for EU market access before 2029

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.06 - 0.07

0.07 - 0.08

0.08 - 0.09

0.09 - 0.10

Above 0.10

Develop a testable theory of quantum gravity and verify it

Feb 2, 11:46 PM

Developer Verification News

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Prediction markets for Developer Verification

Prediction markets for Developer Verification

Prediction markets for Developer Verification

Donut Battery is essentially Lithium free?

Will a critically acclaimed video game feature AI-generated dialogue in 2026?

Will it become practically impossible to verify the authenticity of humans using the internet by 2026?

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Will a cure for fibromyalgia exist by 2036?

Will Humanity Create a Consciousness-Emerging Universe Simulation by 2100?

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Which AI Hardware Governance Scenarios Will Come True?

Will Apple Emissions end at?

Develop a testable theory of quantum gravity and verify it

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