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Prediction markets for Developer Week

Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?

Dec 21, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.41%chance

482976

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

952

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will GME reach $40 before the end of 2026?

Jan 8, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.87%chance

92708

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2393

418

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.54%chance

192063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

800

13

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

Oct 12, 8:49 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

33.1%chance

221998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

918

Will Rory Stewart be a politician again by 2030?

Feb 25, 5:19 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

33.84%chance

211363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1412

689

Manifold Market Ponzi Scheme Stock

Aug 13, 6:14 AMAug 14, 3:59 AM

161356

OptionProbability

NO

YES

985

927

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

730

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.32%chance

10603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

730

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.22%chance

7494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1170

855

Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index ≥ 600 in 2026

Mar 11, 7:31 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM

42.91%chance

7392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

867

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

Apr 7, 9:41 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

Jan-Apr 2028

May-Aug 2028

Sep-Dec 2028

Jan-Apr 2029

May-Aug 2029

Sep-Dec 2029

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9

9

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