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Prediction markets for Developer Week

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Conditinal on Crimea being taken by Ukranian army, will Russia avoid using nuclear weapons?

Dec 21, 11:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.95%chance

472916

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

958

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will >60% of EAs believe that "Pause AI" protests have been net positive in 2030?

Oct 12, 8:49 PMSep 30, 10:59 PM

33.1%chance

221998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

918

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2%chance

181963

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

Will GME reach $40 before the end of 2026?

Jan 8, 9:49 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.63%chance

81458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

664

Will Rory Stewart be a politician again by 2030?

Feb 25, 5:19 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

33.84%chance

211363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1412

689

Manifold Market Ponzi Scheme Stock

Aug 13, 6:14 AMAug 14, 3:59 AM

161352

OptionProbability

NO

YES

981

931

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.09%chance

151045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

720

3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.96%chance

8548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

752

Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index ≥ 600 in 2026

Mar 11, 7:31 PMJan 7, 11:59 PM

39.14%chance

4307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1247

802

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.53%chance

4202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

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