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Prediction markets for Devices

Did tech companies spy on you through device microphones?

Jan 4, 5:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.11%chance

7310550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3614

277

Will a Jony Ive and Sam Altman collaboration lead to a hardware device intended for consumer use, released before 2030.

Sep 28, 1:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

73.01%chance

285333

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1356

824

Will Apple still be selling a device called the iPhone in 2035?

Mar 25, 2:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

75.17%chance

402511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

816

Will Apple have on-device TTS that is indistinguishable from a human narrator before 2027?

Jan 21, 2:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.28%chance

361830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

763

Will the US require speed limiting devices on cars by 2030?

Aug 13, 3:25 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18.28%chance

171777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2115

473

Will there be any credible reports of interesting data on a Flipper Zero being transmitted off the device?

Jan 22, 3:47 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.85%chance

15617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1547

760

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Will the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030?

Oct 24, 3:32 AMDec 31, 3:01 PM

21%chance

10384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

957

Real world adblocking device available by end 2031

Oct 2, 5:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.42%chance

14379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

902

Space Mission or groundbased observation device whose major objectives from the start include observation of 3l/Atlas?

Oct 14, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.32%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

582

145

100+ people regain mobility using a Neuralink device by mid 2027

Jun 19, 5:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

45.77%chance

6221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

919

Will the Michigan Tinnitus Device (Auricle) be released before the end of 2030?

Nov 29, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.11%chance

4130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1699

1502

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