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Prediction markets for Different But No Less

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17782

9207

3. Donald Trump and Elon Musk will have a messy falling-out. This will have meaningful consequences for the world of AI.

Dec 27, 8:14 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

79.49%chance

6116874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1969

508

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

68.47%chance

6813447

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1559

237

[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

20.52%chance

3412373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19679

5082

Will the majority of Western democracies cease to be de facto democratic by 2034?

Jun 11, 5:42 AMMar 1, 12:59 PM

6.31%chance

906445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1978

1525

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?

May 25, 5:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.21%chance

425408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

940

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

54.96%chance

365319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5032

4011

EOY 2025: Will open LLMs perform at least as well as 50 Elo below closed-source LLMs on coding?

Jul 27, 10:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.73%chance

163820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

650

Will German trains be on time again by 2030?

May 23, 2:10 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

40%chance

172891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

31.23%chance

142358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

398

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will "Instrumental Goals Are A Different And Friend..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 26, 11:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

39.41%chance

229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

30

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