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Prediction markets for Diffusers

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

29.53%chance

121160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1545

647

Will there be a successful application of diffusion-like weight modification in LLMs before 2027?

Nov 23, 12:02 PMJan 2, 12:00 AM

26.66%chance

51141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1659

603

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

57%chance

11831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

872

Will it replicate? Genetic and Functional Drivers of Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma (Cell, 2017, by March 2026)

Nov 27, 11:26 AMMar 1, 11:00 AM

7826

OptionProbability

No replication attempt published

Controversial resolution

Replication

Retraction/Notice of concern

Failure to replicate

94

9

7

7

6

Will "Gemini Diffusion: watch this space" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 10:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.49%chance

4460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

940

Attention + Diffusion + Search = AGI?

May 8, 11:00 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

16.84%chance

10271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

442

84

Attention + Diffusion + Search + RL = AGI?

May 9, 1:16 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

33.55%chance

5182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

176

Text diffusion models will hit the mainstream in 2026

Jan 2, 7:46 AMJan 12, 7:59 AM

47.5%chance

3173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

952

Is Diffusion Models all you need for image generation?

Apr 25, 11:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.35%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

103

Will a diffusion transformer (like what's used in oasis) generate an entire subreddit by EOY2026?

Nov 10, 7:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.17%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Will the Biden Administration’s “Export Control Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion” be annulled by EOY2027?

Jan 13, 7:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

When will we get "Stable Diffusion for voice"

Feb 26, 5:05 PM

270

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