OptionProbability
No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)
No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.
Yes: transformers scale the best
No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)
46
35
11
7
Neither
Pixel loss
Embedding Loss
38
27
On Jan 1st 2027
On Jan 1st 2030
80
50
OptionVotes
YES
NO
135
66
1600-1800
1800-2000
2000-2200
2200-2400
2400-2600
9400-9600
9600-9800
9800-10000
3200-3400
3400-3600
3600-3800
3800-4000
4000-4200
4200-4400
4400-4600
4600-4800
4800-5000
5000-5200
5200-5400
5400-5600
5600-5800
5800-6000
6000-6200
6200-6400
6400-6600
6600-6800
0-200
200-400
400-600
600-800
800-1000
1000-1200
1200-1400
1400-1600
2600-2800
2800-3000
3000-3200
6800-7000
7000-7200
7200-7400
7400-7600
7600-7800
7800-8000
8000-8200
8200-8400
8400-8600
8600-8800
8800-9000
9000-9200
9200-9400
5
3
2
1
130
77