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Full digitization (not necessarily emulation) of a human brain by 2035

Feb 14, 11:27 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.05%chance

8111213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1351

1329

9. Robotaxi services will win double-digit market share in ride-hailing in at least 5 major U.S. cities.

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

21.67%chance

302549

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1901

526

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29.36%chance

261221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1011

984

Will there be laws protecting digital artificial intelligences from hate crimes in the USA by the end of 2060?

Apr 4, 8:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.79%chance

13635

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

649

Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2048?

Apr 5, 5:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.13%chance

12604

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1012

973

Will a player win a Super Smash Bros Melee major using a digital / leverless controller before January 1st 2026?

Nov 25, 5:02 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

21.04%chance

14568

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

918

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

29.93%chance

22556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

928

Will I reach 5 digit (<rank 99999) in osu! standard before 2026

Nov 7, 6:11 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

51%chance

7507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1221

677

Reviver, a digital license plate company, is out of business or failing in CA before EOY 2027

Sep 26, 7:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.14%chance

12332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

953

Will the United States have an official central bank digital currency by the end of 2038?

Apr 5, 6:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47%chance

17311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

904

If I stick with Digital Ocean, will they attempt to censor any content I host with them before 2030?

Mar 6, 3:29 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54.27%chance

4211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

918

Will Spanberger (or whoever ends up being the Dem nominee) win Virginia's gubernatorial race by double digits?

Apr 3, 7:41 AMNov 5, 11:59 PM

58.4%chance

5195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1185

844

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