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Prediction markets for Digital Art

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.24%chance

142281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2403

416

Will we be able to read AIs minds in 2030?

Mar 24, 5:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.07%chance

32852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1246

876

Will there be laws protecting digital artificial intelligences from hate crimes in the USA by the end of 2060?

Apr 4, 8:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.79%chance

13635

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1291

649

Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2048?

Apr 5, 5:50 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

13621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

990

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will someone be prosecuted for a hate crime against a digital artificial intelligence in the USA by the end of 2060?

Apr 4, 8:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.97%chance

18565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

955

Will there be laws protecting digital artificial intelligences from hate crimes in the USA by the end of 2030?

Jun 30, 5:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.91%chance

11518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

341

29

Will an artificial intelligence or digital person be named as a party in a criminal trial in the USA by EOY 2038?

Apr 5, 5:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35%chance

9211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

202

Will MoMA acquire a major generative AI artwork before 2027?

Feb 16, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51%chance

10188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will any major auction house hold a dedicated NFT auction during Art Basel Miami 2026?

Feb 16, 11:47 PMDec 7, 11:59 PM

66%chance

4100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

An argument that can convince someone that strong GAI would be capable of taking over the world. [M$50,000 bounty]

Dec 20, 10:57 PM

00

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