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Prediction markets for Digital Marketing AI

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.54%chance

17534125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14201

7469

Will Gavin Newsom be strongly anti-AI before March 2, 2028?

Dec 29, 9:03 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

44.48%chance

143602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1117

895

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will cryptocurrencies replace fiat money before 2040?

Apr 21, 7:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.93%chance

102438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1944

515

Will Temu go out of business in the EU before 2028?

Jul 5, 2:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.5%chance

131943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

758

Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?

May 15, 7:20 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.93%chance

221931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2199

770

Will any computer virus powered by AI cause large damages to digital infrastructure by 2027?

Sep 13, 11:40 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

39.34%chance

361856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1125

740

Will a data centre hosting AI be physically attacked before December 31, 2029?

Sep 29, 7:48 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

52.24%chance

251469

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1334

367

Will Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?

Jun 16, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

121262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2005

499

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

23.46%chance

23806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

923

Will a major-party U.S. presidential candidate deploy an AI clone to talk to voters before the 2028 election?

Oct 19, 1:20 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

25.18%chance

7247

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1184

930

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