Diplomacy News

Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?

Mar 22, 7:59 PMAug 1, 10:29 AM

6.86%chance

10512210

OptionVotes

YES

368

What is the next major competitive sport where AI beat top human player

Feb 24, 3:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

184613

OptionProbability

Other

Math Olympiad or related major Math competitions

League of Legends

Shogi

Bridge

Chess

Settlers of Catan

Magic the Gathering

Age of Empires 2

Geoguessr

Scrabble

Diplomacy (with press)

Will any US state secede before 2050?

Feb 20, 6:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.19%chance

263101

OptionVotes

YES

9909

9675

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Jan 12, 12:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

131529

OptionProbability

A private company declaration/statement (any company)

An AI-related apocalypse cult attacks a civilian or military target

A government of a major nation orders the shutdown of a significant AI service

AI-related cyberattack

Mass AI-driven job displacement event

A government declaration/statement (any country)

Reports about software

Reports about financial activity

Report about sociological observations

Report about economic observations

AI-related academic achievement

Attack on military target

Attack on civilian target

AI-related weapon announcement/use/threat

A statement from an individual (human)

AI-related fake news

AI-related political movement (pro or anti)

Discovery of a spy / mole working for foreign power (or for an AI)

Military activity / posture change

AI-related mass psychosis/hysteria event

An AI uncovers evidence relating to a previous event

AI-designed cyberweapon

AI makes prediction about future event

Open source model release

Release of a closed-source/closed-weights model

Reports of aerial devices/machines

Reports of market activity

AI-related corruption scandal

AI-related theft

A new war between nation states

AI-related resignation

Reports of activity in online communities

Reports of activity on internet-connected servers

Reports of activity in open source software

A declaration/statement from a military / intelligence agency

Reports of activity on internet media distribution platforms

People receiving messages (text / phone calls / whatsapp / ...)

AI-related diplomacy

Reports about consumer activity

Reports about identity theft

Reports of activity in religious communities

AI-related media (movie/song/book ...)

Reports about industrial activity

Reports about physical machines

Reports about criminal activity

AI-related competition achievement

A viral meme

An announcement from an AI lab similar to o3

AI-related Internet shutdown in some country

Conventional weapons attack on AI infrastructure / supply chain

A declaration/statement from an AI (any AI)

AI-related sex scandal

A piece of viral AI-generated media that has a strong/unexpected effect on large numbers of people (~psychological)

AI parasitism / Addictive-Persuasive Agent

Attack on Taiwan

AI-related terrorist attack

AI-related assassination

AI-designed pathogen

AI drug discovery

AI material discovery

Death of an individual in suspicious circumstances

AI-related astronomical event / observation / analysis (can also include satellites)

Reports of underwater activity

Reports of activity on blockchain networks

Reports of activity in academic communities

Publication of a research paper (or pre-print / blog post / poster / twitter thread / ... -- about research-related topic)

Reports of activity in online video games

Reports about people getting scammed

AI-related cult

AI system demonstrates general robotic control

AI causes significant stock market event

Major AGI lab whistleblower revelation

AI-related archaeology

Major AI safety incident or accident

AI system makes scientific breakthrough

AI system solves major unsolved math problem

An AI lab demonstrates an automated AI research engineer

AI-related nuclear weapon use

Will NO foreign leader claim by 31 Dec 2028 that Putin used impersonators, decoys, body doubles to represent Russia?

Jan 9, 7:21 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

88.85%chance

51400

OptionVotes

YES

2363

692

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Sep 20, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.2%chance

121292

OptionVotes

YES

1065

901

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.17%chance

191156

OptionVotes

YES

1128

933

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 22, 2:04 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

68.5%chance

18802

OptionVotes

YES

147

Which of the following capabilities will AI have before 2030? [add your own]

Nov 10, 9:28 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

12463

OptionProbability

Audiobook narration indistinguishable from human

Solve all fresh Sudoku puzzles >99% of the time (LLMs only)

Consistently win games of "Diplomacy" against experienced players online

Improvise and perform professional-level stand-up comedy routines

Write a script to a prompt that is made into a "Certified Fresh" movie on Rotten Tomatoes

Who will have a heated public argument with Trump during his second term?

Mar 1, 3:22 PMJan 21, 3:59 AM

12270

OptionProbability

Volodymyr Zelenskyy (again)

Adam Boulton

Other foreign head of state (not Zelenskyy)

AOC

Elon Musk

A Supreme Court Justice

Ron DeSantis

A former U.S. president

Putin

Will OpenAI model win first "inter-AI-model diplomacy" game where the game is EU4/5, Civ6/7, or AoE2 Regicide Rumble?

Jul 17, 11:22 PMJan 1, 12:21 AM

50%chance

228

OptionVotes

YES

100

Is Portugal the safest country to do diplomacy in (eg between Israel and Palestine)

Sep 12, 6:30 PM

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Will Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire before August 1, 2026?

What is the next major competitive sport where AI beat top human player

Will any US state secede before 2050?

What will be "March 2020" for AGI?

Will NO foreign leader claim by 31 Dec 2028 that Putin used impersonators, decoys, body doubles to represent Russia?

Will general purpose AI models beat average score of human players in Diplomacy by 2028?

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Which of the following capabilities will AI have before 2030? [add your own]

Who will have a heated public argument with Trump during his second term?

Will OpenAI model win first "inter-AI-model diplomacy" game where the game is EU4/5, Civ6/7, or AoE2 Regicide Rumble?

Is Portugal the safest country to do diplomacy in (eg between Israel and Palestine)

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