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Prediction markets for Direct Express

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.16%chance

26682672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8636

4842

Will Elon Musk say he is a Christian before 2029?

Feb 12, 11:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

16.99%chance

418405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2211

452

Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029?

Sep 2, 9:08 PMJan 20, 4:59 PM

12.28%chance

153698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2673

374

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.38%chance

242326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2440

410

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

50%chance

92240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

479

304

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

28.12%chance

251306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

510

Will university fusion continue in Paris until only 1 huge one remain? (Before Nov. 2027)

Nov 6, 9:48 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

6.62%chance

8895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

78

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.98%chance

7319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

960

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?

Oct 13, 10:53 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9198

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scott Alexander

Toby Ord

Geoffrey Hinton

Nick Bostrom

Yoshua Bengio

Ilya Sutskever

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

95

63

55

50

44

41

35

32

15

10

Will Pope Leo criticize JD Vance by name before the 2028 election?

Feb 23, 8:02 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

32.5%chance

11187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

69

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.28%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

87

Will a sequel to Sophie's World be written by 2040?

Jul 13, 12:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.5%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

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