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Prediction markets for Direct Express

Will Elon Musk say he is a Christian before 2029?

Feb 12, 11:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

18.44%chance

408113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2103

475

NATO joins USA-Iran conflict before 2026?

Jun 22, 10:25 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

5.64%chance

284709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4091

244

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

79.3%chance

264319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1958

511

Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029?

Sep 2, 9:08 PMJan 20, 4:59 PM

8.43%chance

93027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3297

303

Iran officially accused by NATO of attacking a member state before 2026?

Jun 22, 2:02 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

8.83%chance

112821

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3214

311

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

47.32%chance

61726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

499

284

Will university fusion continue in Paris until only 1 huge one remain? (Before Nov. 2027)

Nov 6, 9:48 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

6.62%chance

8895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

78

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

50.65%chance

7826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

987

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

May 23, 10:45 AMJul 4, 8:31 AM

11400

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Geoffrey Hinton

Nick Bostrom

Toby Ord

Scott Alexander

Ilya Sutskever

Yoshua Bengio

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

89

55

41

36

35

34

30

24

12

12

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals when Manifold thinks ASI is <1y away?

Oct 13, 10:53 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9198

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Scott Alexander

Toby Ord

Geoffrey Hinton

Nick Bostrom

Yoshua Bengio

Ilya Sutskever

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

95

63

55

50

44

41

35

32

15

10

Will there be a Python implementation of the Open Game Engine (a Compositional Game Theory Model Checker) before 2028?

Apr 13, 12:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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