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Prediction markets for Direct Express

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47%chance

24972874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7846

5630

Will Elon Musk say he is a Christian before 2029?

Feb 12, 11:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

15.86%chance

418313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

434

Will Section 4 of the 25th Amendment be invoked before Inauguration Day 2029?

Sep 2, 9:08 PMJan 20, 4:59 PM

8.21%chance

103297

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3343

299

Who would win if Ethiopia went to war against Eritrea and its ally,The Tigray Defense Force (TDF) ?

Feb 20, 1:36 PMDec 31, 1:34 PM

92664

OptionProbability

Eritrean Defense Forces and Tigray Defense Force will win the Fight.

Ethiopian Defense Force will win the Fight

It will be stalemate

71

16

13

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.9%chance

232276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2390

418

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky associate the UFO phenomenon with AI 1 year after losing his UFO bet? (PROB 50 if he wins)

Jan 18, 8:28 PMFeb 18, 3:59 AM

47.32%chance

61726

OptionVotes

YES

NO

499

284

Do short sleeper genes exist, and do they accelerate repair proccesses?

Aug 10, 5:55 PMDec 18, 2:59 PM

59.88%chance

19407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

928

What will be the P(doom) of these individuals 6 months after ASI has been created but hasn't wiped out humanity yet?

May 23, 10:45 AMJul 4, 8:31 AM

11400

OptionProbability

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Geoffrey Hinton

Nick Bostrom

Toby Ord

Scott Alexander

Ilya Sutskever

Yoshua Bengio

Dario Amodei

Sam Altman

Yann LeCun

89

55

41

36

35

34

30

24

12

12

Will the following people convert to Christianity before 2030? [Add Answers]

Apr 1, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5238

OptionProbability

Joe Rogan

Elon Musk

Alex O'Conner

Sam Harris

Sam Altman

45

29

20

14

11

Will Pope Leo criticize JD Vance by name before the 2028 election?

Feb 23, 8:02 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

50%chance

7122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.85%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

902

Will there be a Python implementation of the Open Game Engine (a Compositional Game Theory Model Checker) before 2028?

Apr 13, 12:53 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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