Direct File News

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

27.16%chance

750336500

OptionVotes

YES

6244

3509

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Jan 25, 8:48 PMJul 30, 10:59 PM

9.78%chance

7433911

OptionVotes

YES

30376

3292

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.5%chance

8128760

OptionVotes

YES

1926

1868

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.22%chance

808788

OptionVotes

YES

1182

712

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM

14.4%chance

504152

OptionVotes

YES

1057

959

Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?

Jan 4, 11:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.23%chance

253337

OptionVotes

YES

2587

968

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Feb 1, 4:55 PMMar 3, 11:59 PM

50.41%chance

343035

OptionVotes

YES

1008

992

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

36.6%chance

61975

OptionVotes

YES

6581

3799

Will the IRS free file alternative (Direct File) be publicly available for filing 2025 federal taxes?

Dec 29, 4:58 PMApr 16, 3:59 AM

12.11%chance

151809

OptionVotes

YES

343

Will NVIDIA acquire OpenAI by the end of 2028?

Jan 20, 9:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.08%chance

6524

OptionVotes

YES

432

Alcoa's alumina segment 2026 production exceeds 9.5 Mt (9,500 kt)

Jan 12, 7:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.09%chance

4245

OptionVotes

YES

1227

815

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

Jan 8, 11:12 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Option 1: Team A (The Firebrands: Sifuna/Babu/Arati/Orengo) - Resolves if Sifuna remains SG or ODM officially supports a presidential candidate (even from another party, e.g., Kalonzo Musyoka or Fred Matiang'i)with a nod from the firebrands

Option 2: Team B (The Broad-based: Wanga/Joho/Mbadi) - Resolves if a Team B member becomes SG or the party officially joins the Government coalition for 2027.

Option 3: Add names to complement your Team or suggest your prefered team formation and alignment

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Prediction markets for Direct File

Prediction markets for Direct File

Prediction markets for Direct File

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Will consumer AI platforms (ChatGPT, Claude, Perplexity, etc) face an ‘economic blackout’ protest against the US govt?

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Will we learn by 2027 that Maduro’s ouster was an internal coup with US assistance?

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Will the IRS free file alternative (Direct File) be publicly available for filing 2025 federal taxes?

Will NVIDIA acquire OpenAI by the end of 2028?

Alcoa's alumina segment 2026 production exceeds 9.5 Mt (9,500 kt)

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

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