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Prediction markets for Direct File

Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?

Oct 26, 3:24 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

26.03%chance

695298602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6462

3426

Will any top officials leave the Trump administration over the Epstein case?

Jul 12, 12:48 PMDec 31, 1:41 PM

9%chance

8713320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3180

314

Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?

Mar 6, 9:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.22%chance

808788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

712

Criminal charges filed for Sunset Fire by the end of 2025?

Jan 9, 9:08 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

6.81%chance

155884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3699

270

BOA launches USD stablecoin in 2025?

Mar 7, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.11%chance

124778

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5579

179

Criminal charges filed for Eaton Fire by the end of 2025?

Jan 9, 4:52 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

6.7%chance

94200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3730

268

Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Jan 14, 10:50 PMJan 15, 4:59 AM

18.07%chance

443696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

841

Will a major tech company (Apple, Google, Microsoft, or Meta) acquire a neurotech startup in 2025?

Mar 8, 11:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.31%chance

182365

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2552

392

Would the $100k H-1B fee apply to intl. students graduating in the U.S. or switching from OPT?

Sep 23, 12:55 PMJan 20, 1:52 PM

36.6%chance

61975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6581

3799

Will the IRS free file alternative (Direct File) be publicly available for filing 2025 federal taxes?

Dec 29, 4:58 PMApr 16, 3:59 AM

12.11%chance

141789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

343

45

Trump leaves office over Epstein files?

Nov 13, 11:48 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

3.27%chance

241698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

544

18

Will OpenAI get unrestricted access to >60% of the work done by METR baseliners?

Jan 20, 3:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.26%chance

51550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2452

408

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