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Prediction markets for Direct Market Access

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

1110587

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

70

52

39

30

19

7

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.68%chance

195588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10173

3993

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

556

Sora app reaches 50 billion daily views by end of 2026?

Oct 1, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.7%chance

142284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2748

364

Was Epstein a Russian asset?

Feb 9, 11:39 PMJan 1, 11:35 PM

14.9%chance

232276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2390

418

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

604

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60%chance

5805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

660

AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?

Oct 13, 4:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.51%chance

15345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

913

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

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