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Prediction markets for Direct Market Access

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Oct 16, 2:41 PMJan 2, 3:04 AM

118737

OptionProbability

2035

2032

2030

2029

2028

2027

70

60

44

30

19

12

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2028

Jul 4, 3:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.44%chance

555211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1461

556

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.73%chance

193588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8173

4268

Will GPT, or AI systems that have GPT as their main component, become as reliably factual as Wikipedia, before 2026?

Apr 11, 10:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.93%chance

302649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

864

Sora app reaches 50 billion daily views by end of 2026?

Oct 1, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.92%chance

111924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2388

419

Human-machine intelligence parity achieved before 2030

Jul 4, 3:44 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

73.79%chance

321826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1595

604

Will technical limitations or safeguards significantly restrict public access to smarter-than-almost-all-humans AGI?

Jun 10, 7:27 PMJun 11, 3:59 AM

40.38%chance

131556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1215

823

If I switch to using Supabase, will anything change and seriously break my script within the next three months?

Oct 4, 7:18 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.31%chance

151102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

789

Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?

Nov 23, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.35%chance

3515

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1515

660

AI honesty #4: by 2027, will we have AI that would tell us if it was planning on destroying us (conditional on that being true)?

Oct 13, 4:13 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

22.3%chance

14342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

910

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.59%chance

3240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1240

806

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

49.1%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

1035

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