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Prediction markets for Direct Taxes

Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

22.43%chance

193648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

1093

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

CI2026: Will the next ECOFIN decide to include novel tobacco products in the revised Tobacco Taxation Directive?

Oct 16, 9:38 AMNov 9, 10:59 PM

5.48%chance

251560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

405

55

Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033?

Jun 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.73%chance

121336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1502

666

Trump gives people cash from tariffs in 2026?

Nov 20, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.6%chance

16684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

36

Will a government with Georgist policies emerge before 2050?

Nov 29, 5:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.7%chance

7265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

112

Will the EU directly collect a tax before 2035?

May 3, 10:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.7%chance

6191

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

If CA Prop 40 passes will 41 or 42 also pass?

Oct 1, 7:06 PMDec 25, 11:59 PM

52.03%chance

5161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Will Georgism (aka land value taxes) get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Oct 30, 6:11 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

29.01%chance

669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

153

Will Gerd Kommer outperform JPMorgan over 10 years?

Jun 22, 6:43 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

44.23%chance

313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

99

82

Will Soros's Open Society Foundations be defunct and cease to exist before 2031?

Oct 12, 9:50 AMDec 31, 11:00 AM

9.99%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

99

What will the top estate tax rate be on estates taxed in 2054 in the USA?

Jan 17, 10:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

[20%, 30%)

There will be no estate/gift/inheritance tax in 2054

[0%, 10%)

[10%, 20%)

[30%, 40%)

[40%, 50%)

[50%, 70%)

[70%, 90%)

[90%, 100%)

100%

22

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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