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By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

555496084

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3489

1137

If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?

Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33%chance

12913375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2684

1043

If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030

Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

40.23%chance

926495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3092

899

Will WW3 directly cause over 1B civilian casualties?

Jan 3, 8:44 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

26.01%chance

86380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9588

101

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

40.83%chance

34932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12039

8306

Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

22.43%chance

193648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

1093

In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?

Sep 16, 4:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.95%chance

391876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1339

719

Will there be mass layoffs of knowledge workers as a direct result of AI by 2030?

Oct 10, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.72%chance

221532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

940

Will someone be able to play Super Smash Bros directly with the Neuralink as a controller by the end of 2034?

Mar 21, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.89%chance

191017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

548

Will U.S. 401(k) plans widely allow direct investment in cryptocurrencies by 2030?

May 27, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.98%chance

5933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

546

Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?

Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.1%chance

8909

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

867

Alphafold involved in a SOTA C02 direct air capture method by mid 2026 ?

Jun 2, 8:33 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

35.58%chance

5475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

743

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