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By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.86%chance

653719860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5791

4783

If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?

Aug 3, 3:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.92%chance

13514996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2111

1414

Will a Manifest speaker run a direct science funding Organization by mid 2027?

Jun 9, 9:27 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

22.99%chance

511228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18303

5464

If China invades Taiwan will there be direct military involvement from the US by EOY 2030

Apr 9, 8:12 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

44.69%chance

976705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2926

1021

Will WW3 directly cause over 1B civilian casualties?

Jan 3, 8:44 PMJan 10, 10:59 PM

24%chance

116486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9618

91

Will an individual-directed ransomware campaign materially harm 100k people by 9 April 2027?

Apr 9, 9:49 AMApr 9, 9:48 AM

42.64%chance

233700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4493

3587

Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

22.43%chance

193648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

1093

Will the FY2027 NDAA enter law by February 1st 2027, and direct U.S.-Israel military cooperation in AI?

Jun 6, 9:46 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

61.83%chance

112048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1138

717

In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?

Sep 16, 4:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.44%chance

401975

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1273

760

Will someone be able to play Super Smash Bros directly with the Neuralink as a controller by the end of 2034?

Mar 21, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75.49%chance

191027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

538

Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?

Aug 12, 9:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

59.17%chance

9959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

831

Will U.S. 401(k) plans widely allow direct investment in cryptocurrencies by 2030?

May 27, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.98%chance

5933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

546

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