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Prediction markets for Director Oscar

Will a High Frame Rate film win an Academy Award before 2030?

Jul 15, 9:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.36%chance

321716

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

841

By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction

Mar 31, 12:22 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

17.96%chance

19302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1256

902

Will Timothee Chalamet win an Oscar before 2030?

Mar 16, 10:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37%chance

10192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Outer Dark (McCarthy) film adaptation before 2028?

May 21, 5:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.44%chance

496

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

837

When will Paul Thomas Anderson’s next feature film be released?

Apr 11, 1:18 AMJan 1, 2:16 AM

365

OptionProbability

2028

2029

2030 or later

Never / no future films

Before 2028

25

25

25

17

8

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