Disclaimer News

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

16.92%chance

817531

OptionVotes

YES

3762

454

Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?

Nov 14, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.93%chance

847427

OptionVotes

YES

1157

679

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.54%chance

777161

OptionVotes

YES

2241

1226

Will Manifold successfully predict the next pandemic at least 2 weeks in advance?

May 18, 6:49 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

59.99%chance

143350

OptionVotes

YES

12246

8166

Did Jane Street do anything wrong in India?

Jul 9, 9:59 PMJan 1, 5:51 PM

47.56%chance

251610

OptionVotes

YES

1050

952

Do humans have free will?

Aug 19, 8:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.01%chance

361006

OptionVotes

YES

1449

832

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Aug 8, 1:54 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.39%chance

16948

OptionVotes

YES

1497

789

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

1173

596

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.55%chance

7250

OptionVotes

YES

350

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.7%chance

12143

OptionVotes

YES

170

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

Jan 8, 11:12 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Option 1: Team A (The Firebrands: Sifuna/Babu/Arati/Orengo) - Resolves if Sifuna remains SG or ODM officially supports a presidential candidate (even from another party, e.g., Kalonzo Musyoka or Fred Matiang'i)with a nod from the firebrands

Option 2: Team B (The Broad-based: Wanga/Joho/Mbadi) - Resolves if a Team B member becomes SG or the party officially joins the Government coalition for 2027.

Option 3: Add names to complement your Team or suggest your prefered team formation and alignment

Disclaimer News

Prediction markets for Disclaimer

Prediction markets for Disclaimer

Prediction markets for Disclaimer

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Will Manifold successfully predict the next pandemic at least 2 weeks in advance?

Did Jane Street do anything wrong in India?

Do humans have free will?

Will fewer than 10% of 18-24 year olds choose to eat meat by 2100?

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

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