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Will Bitcoin Reach $69,420 Before $128,700 ?

Nov 26, 9:52 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

94.75%chance

14081297

OptionVotes

YES

4826

521

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

18.29%chance

4610088

OptionVotes

YES

1576

823

Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?

Nov 14, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.57%chance

847362

OptionVotes

YES

1221

593

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

Jun 6, 12:13 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

29.62%chance

806693

OptionVotes

YES

2872

716

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.88%chance

726686

OptionVotes

YES

1792

1322

Did Jane Street do anything wrong in India?

Jul 9, 9:59 PMJan 1, 5:51 PM

47.51%chance

241609

OptionVotes

YES

1051

951

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

1173

596

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

7200

OptionVotes

YES

300

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.06%chance

7158

OptionVotes

YES

258

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?

Dec 5, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

171

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

Jan 8, 11:12 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Option 1: Team A (The Firebrands: Sifuna/Babu/Arati/Orengo) - Resolves if Sifuna remains SG or ODM officially supports a presidential candidate (even from another party, e.g., Kalonzo Musyoka or Fred Matiang'i)with a nod from the firebrands

Option 2: Team B (The Broad-based: Wanga/Joho/Mbadi) - Resolves if a Team B member becomes SG or the party officially joins the Government coalition for 2027.

Option 3: Add names to complement your Team or suggest your prefered team formation and alignment

Disclaimer News

Prediction markets for Disclaimer

Prediction markets for Disclaimer

Prediction markets for Disclaimer

Will Bitcoin Reach $69,420 Before $128,700 ?

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?

Will the Apple Vision Pro be worn in public in 2027?

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Did Jane Street do anything wrong in India?

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at any point by the end of 2026?

Will Chat GPT remove or hide their 'ai can make mistakes' disclaimer from website page at the end of 2027?

ODM: Mutiny 4 Unity or Utility 4 futility.Will Sifuna & Babu Owino snatch the Orange from the Broad-based Government?

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