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Prediction markets for Discovery

Paramount Skydance acquires Warner Brothers Discovery before 10/31/2026

Oct 4, 1:00 AMNov 1, 12:55 AM

82%chance

3120625

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2134

469

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

60%chance

405036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

Is there a major headline discovery that still remains hidden in the world's oceans?

Apr 7, 9:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

88.78%chance

813413

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2609

1178

Will a human walk on Mars before a Nobel Prize is awarded for a discovery relating to dark matter?

Jun 16, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:01 AM

67.74%chance

362720

OptionVotes

NO

YES

977

952

Planet 9 named 'Hades' upon discovery?

May 5, 4:30 AMJan 2, 5:29 AM

11.1%chance

72000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2830

353

Major archaeological discovery rivaling Göbekli Tepe by 2043?

Apr 21, 8:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.88%chance

221615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2059

702

Frontier science theorem discovery fully formalized in proof assistant before 2028?

May 23, 6:26 AMDec 31, 9:44 AM

22.82%chance

111221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1842

547

Will a scientific discovery extend human lifespan by more than 10 years within the next 20 years?

Mar 15, 12:30 AMDec 22, 2:59 AM

38.29%chance

19608

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

957

Will AI play a substential role in the discovery of the first room T+P superconductor ?

Mar 6, 8:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

63.25%chance

23471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1160

890

Will evolutionary psychology make a clinically useful discovery by 2050?

Apr 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

33.7%chance

12358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

898

By 2040, will a chamber have been found in or under the Great Sphinx that represents a significant discovery?

Aug 9, 7:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

32%chance

20333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

971

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

Nov 27, 9:10 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.29%chance

11290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

993

983

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