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Prediction markets for Disperse

Assembly of Experts hit by US or Israeli attack in 2026 and at least one cleric dies

Mar 2, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.72%chance

2710998

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3725

268

Radiological "dirty bomb" attack anywhere in the world by 2029-06-30

Jun 22, 3:26 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM

11.96%chance

192443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2713

369

First country to conduct offensive nuclear strike (before 2035)?

May 9, 2:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72166

OptionProbability

Pakistan

Russia

Iran

United States

North Korea

China

Israel

India

Other

France

Saudi Arabia

United Kingdom

18

17

11

9

8

7

7

6

6

5

5

1

Will a dirty bomb be used by 2030?

Sep 7, 11:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.4%chance

191493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1529

896

Will The US Hold Captive A Iranian Leader By 4th Of July?

Mar 23, 1:53 AMJan 1, 2:53 AM

14.44%chance

11321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

243

41

Will the World Tension Index get above 100 in 2026?

Dec 31, 6:41 AMJan 2, 11:59 PM

47%chance

8230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

CEOs of Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold to all mention Hayek in 2026?

Jan 18, 2:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

5200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

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