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Prediction markets for Distributed Validator

Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?

Jun 3, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

7276

OptionVotes

NO

YES

524

438

Will Gary Marcus still say that deep learning models can't reason after they prove the Riemann hypothesis?

Jan 3, 2:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

39.43%chance

7184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

81

What will be the title/focus of the next Star Wars film? (Releasing 05/22/26)

Oct 20, 4:10 AMMay 24, 5:59 AM

999

OptionProbability

Rey’s New Jedi Order movie

“Dawn of the Jedi”

Dave Filoni’s The Mandalorian movie

56

51

34

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