District One News

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

39.13%chance

74647

OptionVotes

YES

12472

8018

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

55.66%chance

394057

OptionVotes

YES

1067

932

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

May 1, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:04 AM

23.16%chance

232453

OptionVotes

YES

1822

549

Congressional Survivor: Who will be the final member in Congress?

Mar 14, 2:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

221911

OptionProbability

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, AOC (D: NY-14)

Josh Hawley (R: MO)

Rashida Tlaib (D: MI-12)

Jon Ossoff (D: GA)

Maxwell Frost (D: FL-10)

Cori Bush (D: MO-1)

Matt Gaetz (R: FL-1)

If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving?

Nov 23, 1:14 AMNov 29, 7:59 AM

10.89%chance

261512

OptionVotes

YES

1845

830

Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2030?

Aug 5, 6:05 PMNov 5, 6:54 PM

16.1%chance

19829

OptionVotes

YES

1212

937

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

Feb 9, 2:56 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.04%chance

12728

OptionProbability

YES

1258

854

What will be the result of the US Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump?

Nov 21, 11:19 PMJun 30, 10:12 PM

8628

OptionProbability

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), AND allows at least SOME repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification

Court rules that tariffs are constitutional (because Congress didn’t exercise objection right to state of emergency…or other reason).

Court Rules Tariffs under IEEPA are unconstitutional (strikes down), but blocks repayments for companies who have paid tariffs under the IEEPA justification.

Court somehow fudges, or refuses to finalise clear opinion

Other

Will there be autonomous school busses in service in the USA by 2030?

Jun 13, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.58%chance

3222

OptionVotes

YES

171

Masterton, Carterton, and South Wairarapa District Councils amalgamate before 2030?

Oct 20, 3:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

1000

Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2040?

Aug 5, 6:07 PMNov 6, 6:54 PM

32%chance

892

OptionVotes

YES

189

156

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2029?

Jun 1, 6:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

61.21%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

134

District One News

Prediction markets for District One

Prediction markets for District One

Prediction markets for District One

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Will Apple VP of Finance Alex Roman receive any legal penalty for “lying under oath"?

Congressional Survivor: Who will be the final member in Congress?

If the Netherlands has a referendum on leaving the EU, will it favor leaving?

Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2030?

What percentage of FTX Future Fund grant funds will ultimately be returned/clawed back?

What will be the result of the US Supreme Court in Learning Resources v. Trump?

Will there be autonomous school busses in service in the USA by 2030?

Masterton, Carterton, and South Wairarapa District Councils amalgamate before 2030?

Will gerrymandering U.S. Congressional districts be illegal in the U.S. by 2040?

Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2029?

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