OptionProbability
5/15 - After Round 1, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5/15 - After Round 1, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ryan Gerard?
5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ryan Gerard?
5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ryan Gerard?
5/17 - After Round 3, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jhonathan Vegas?
5/18 - After Round 4, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jhonathan Vegas?
5-22, After Round 1 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5-23, After Round 2 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5-24, After Round 3 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5-25, After Round 4 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5-22, After Round 1 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-23, After Round 2 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-24, After Round 3 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-25, After Round 4 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-25, After Round 4 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-29, After Round 1 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-29, After Round 1 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-29, After Round 1 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
5-31, After Round 3 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-31, After Round 3 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-31, After Round 3 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6-1, After Round 4 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
6-1, After Round 4 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6-1, After Round 4 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Rory McIlroy lead Justin Thomas?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
7-18, After Round 2 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Ben Griffin lead Collin Morikawa?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Collin Morikawa lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Collin Morikawa lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Thriston Lawrence?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Si Woo Kim?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Brooks Koepka?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Sungjae Im?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Ben Griffin?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Ben Griffin?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Ben Griffin?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Viktor Hovland?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Sam Burns?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Brooks Koepka?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead J. J. Spaun?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Rory McIlroy lead Jason Day?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Ricky Fowler lead Si Woo Kim?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Si Woo Kim?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Xander Schauffele lead Si Woo Kim?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Xander Schauffele lead J.J. Spaun?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Austin Eckroat?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Austin Eckroat lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Wyndham Clark?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Keegan Bradley lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Keegan Bradley?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Cameron Young?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Jason Day lead Viktor Hovland?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Nick Taylor lead Viktor Hovland?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Justin Thomas lead Collin Morikawa?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Adam Scott lead Si Woo Kim?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Justin Thomas lead Collin Morikawa?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Jason Day?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Jason Day lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Scottie Scheffler??
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Austin Eckroat?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Nick Taylor??
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Brian Harman lead Wyndham Clark?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Harris English lead Wyndham Clark?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?
6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?
6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Ben Griffin lead Keegan Bradley?
6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?
6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?
6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?
6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Chris Kirk lead Phillip Knowles?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Shane Lowry?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Jon Rahm?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Xander Schauffele lead Tommy Fleetwood?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Collin Morikawa?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Matt Fitzpatrick?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Brian Harman?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Haotong Li?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Tyrrell Hatton?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Haotong Li lead Tyrrell Hatton?
7-19, After Round 3 of the British Open Championship, will Haotong Li lead Brian Harman?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Keegan Bradley?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jordan Spieth lead Ben Griffin?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Robert McIntyre lead Ben Griffin?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Robert McIntyre lead Hideki Matsuyama?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Si Woo Kim lead Hideki Matsuyama?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Robert McIntyre lead Si Woo Kim?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Alex Noren lead Harry Hall?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Cameron Young lead Aaron Rai?
8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Cameron Young lead Aaron Rai?
8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavarria lead Aaron Rai?
8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavarria lead Jordan Spieth?
7/28 - After Round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Junior, will Charlie Woods lead Darren Zhou?
7/28 - After Round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Junior, will Charlie Woods lead Lucas Gimenez?
7/28 - After Round 1 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Junior, will Charlie Woods lead Ben Lathrop?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?
6-29, After Round 4 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?
8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Cameron Young lead the field?
8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavaria lead Cameron Young?
8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavaria lead Aaron Rai?
8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Nico Echavaria lead Mac Meissner?
8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jackson Koivun lead Mac Meissner?
8/03 - After Round 4 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jackson Koivun lead Matt Fitzpatrick?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Jackson Koivun lead Matt Fitzpatrick?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Matt Fitzpatrick?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Keegan Bradley?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Corey Connors lead Keegan Bradley?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Harris English lead Keegan Bradley?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Corey Connors lead Harris English?
8/07 - After Round 1 of the Fedex St. Jude Championship, will Tommy Fleetwood lead Harris English?
8/02 - After Round 3 of the Wyndham Championship, will Chandler Phillips lead Aaron Rai?
5/15 - After Round 1, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/17- After Round 3, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/18- After Round 4, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
5/16 - After Round 2, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jhonathan Vegas?
5-23, After Round 2 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-24, After Round 3 of the Charles Schwab Challenge, will Scottie Scheffler lead John Pak?
5-30, After Round 2 of the Memorial, will Scottie Scheffler lead Ben Griffin?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Rory McIlroy lead Bryson DeChambeau?
6-12, After Round 1 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Collin Morikawa?
6-13, After Round 2 of the US Open Championship, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jon Rahm?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Victor Perez lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Victor Perez lead J. J. Spaun?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Victor Perez lead Viktor Hovland?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Brooks Koepka lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Brooks Koepka lead J.J. Spaun?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead J.J. Spaun?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will J.J. Spaun lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead Sam Burns?
6-14, After Round 3 of the US Open Championship, will Viktor Hovland lead J.J. Spaun?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will J. J. Spaun lead Sam Burns?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead J.J. Spaun?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Adam Scott lead Viktor Hovland?
6-15, After Round 4 of the US Open Championship, will Jordan Spieth lead Brooks Koepka?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Thomas?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Collin Morikawa?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Tony Finau lead Jason Day?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Tony Finau lead Rory McIlroy?
6/19 - After Round 1 of the Travelers, will Ricky Fowler lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Wyndham Clark lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Cameron Young lead Rory McIlroy?
6/20 - After Round 2 of the Travelers, will Jason Day lead Jason Day?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Shane Lowry lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Denny McCarthy lead Scottie Scheffler?
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Austin Eckroat lead Scottie Scheffler??
6/21 - After Round 3 of the Travelers, will Nick Taylor lead Scottie Scheffler??
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Brian Harman lead Harrish English?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Lucas Glover lead Rory McIlroy?
6/22 - After Round 4 of the Travelers, will Lucas Glover lead Scottie Scheffler?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Jon Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?
6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Collin Morikawa lead Patrick Cantlay?
6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?
6-27, After Round 2 of the Rocket Classic, will Patrick Cantlay lead Victor Perez?
6-26, After Round 1 of the Rocket Classic, will Keegan Bradley lead Wyndham Clark?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Chris Kirk lead Andrew Putnam?
6-28, After Round 3 of the Rocket Classic, will Phillip Knowles lead Andrew Putnam?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Jon Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Shane Lowry lead Rory McIlroy?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Shane Lowry lead Jon Rahm?
7-17, After Round 1 of the British Open Championship, will Shane Lowry lead Matt Fitzpatrick?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Jon Rahm lead Rory McIlroy?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Bryson DeChambeau lead Rory McIlroy?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Xander Schauffele lead Rory McIlroy?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Victor Hovland lead Tommy Fleetwood?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Victor Hovland lead Tyrrell Hatton?
7-20, After Round 4 of the British Open Championship, will Ludvig Aberg lead Tyrrell Hatton?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Aaron Rai?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Keegan Bradley lead Aaron Rai?
7/31 - After Round 1 of the Wyndham Championship, will Matt Fitzpatrick lead Ben Griffin?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Lucas Glover lead Si Woo Kim?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Lucas Glover lead Harry Hall?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jake Knapp lead Harry Hall?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Joel Dahmen lead Harry Hall?
8/01 - After Round 2 of the Wyndham Championship, will Jake Knapp lead Joel Dahmen?
100
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100
100
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100
100
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100
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100
100
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100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
RV events
Police as crime solvers
Prison as corrective
Libertarian free will
LessWrong is a source of pure wisdom
Working gives us meaning.
Merit/desert
Neoliberalism
Proof School
LSD unlocks a deeper consciousness
IQ as an objective measure of general intelligence
Rule a Country (discord server)
Religion
Peer reviewed studies - lots of junk routinely passes peer review, replication/post publication peer review are much better indicators of quality of research
The meaning of life
Quantum computing
Death
meta-irony
Cryptocurrency
Pessimism about the future of the world
Alcohol is needed for life to be fun
Founders/Entrepreneurs
On Manifold, mana inflation
The attitude that many of us tend to take way too many things way too seriously (serious submission)
Humans being innately (as opposed to instrumentally) more important than other animals
Free will in general
Having kids
An apple a day
Nihilism
Clinical Psychology
meta-submissions
focus on X-risks within EA as opposed to current issues
Nuclear fusion as the energy of the future
Children as planetary burden
Anti-capitalism
Analytic philosophy
Continental philosophy
Ockham’s razor
Free Trade
Deontological ethics
Capitalism
Utilitarianism
Freedom
Modernity
The analytic-synthetic distinction
Veganism
Technological progress as a good thing
Moral relativism
Classical literature
Artificial Intelligence
Being in shape
Rationality
Effective Altruism
AI Doomerism
Longevity/immortality
Politics
Therapy
Free Speech
The opinion that neoliberalism is overrated
The anti- AI art movement
Extended Travelling (as opposed to <4 week vacation)
Taking things seriously
Enlightenment
Unconditional love
Reason
Environmentalism for its own sake (rather than for humans' sake)
Donald Trump being the worst thing for the US and the world
Atheism
Russia = Evil, Ukraine = Good
Psychedelics
Privacy
Living
Prediction markets
democracy
Biodiversity
Virtue
Money as corrupting force in politics
91
90
87
87
84
81
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
75
74
73
73
72
72
71
71
70
70
69
66
66
64
64
63
63
62
61
59
59
56
55
55
55
52
51
48
48
48
48
47
47
46
45
45
45
42
41
41
40
39
37
36
36
35
34
34
30
29
28
28
27
27
26
25
23
23
23
22
22
21
20
15
OptionProbability
Canada [2025]
UAE [2025]
United Kingdom [2025]
Israel [2025]
Japan [2025]
India [2025]
South Korea [2025]
Ireland [2025]
Australia [2025]
China [2025]
Mexico [2025]
Argentina [2025]
Brazil [2025]
Singapore [2025]
Turkey [2025]
Philippines [2025]
Ukraine [2025]
Malaysia [2025]
Egypt [2025]
Morocco [2025]
Nepal [2025]
Cambodia [2025]
Dominican Republic [2025]
South Africa [2025]
Indonesia [2025]
Cuba [2025]
Hong Kong [2025]
Macau [2025]
Taiwan [2025]
Peru [2025]
Chile [2025]
Ethiopia [2025]
Tanzania [2025]
Kenya [2025]
New Zealand [2025]
Tunesia [2025]
Iran [2025]
100
100
98
91
78
64
61
56
54
48
45
44
40
38
38
36
33
30
29
28
25
24
22
21
21
20
20
17
17
16
15
15
14
13
13
13
8
OptionProbability
>5 new Mega Evolutions
Pikachu can be caught in-game
Available on both Switch and Switch 2 on release
Open world (at least as much as Legends Arceus)
Aiming and throwing things is a central mechanic (like in Legends: Arceus)
200 or more pokemon found in-game
>5 new regional or alternate forms of existing Pokémon (must have shared national dex number)
You will be able to go onto Prism Tower
Metascore equal to (or higher than) Pokemon Legends: Arceus (83)
Plot specifically involves time travel
Pokemon will have abilities
Team Flare will have a non-evil ancestor organization (ie the Galaxy Team)
>3 entirely new pokemon (not regional forms - must have own national dex number)
It will take place entirely inside of Lumiose City
New convergent Pokemon
It will have multiplayer beyond battling/trading (similar to Scarlet/Violet)
Released before July 2025
Piplup will be available as a Starter Pokemon
97
97
94
88
86
82
75
73
65
61
50
50
45
27
20
5
1
1
OptionProbability
EY suffers severe mental degeneration leading to delusions
EY's mind changes such that a boring explanation is worldview-shattering
Aliens
Demons (as in a traditional Abrahamic religion)
Idealism (Consciousness underpins physical reality)
Simulation Hypothesis
UFOs are time travelers
Holographic Principle
UFOs are angels
UFOs are psychic manifestations
Eliezer knows aliens are real and will be disclosed soon. He's rallying people to dump money into a bet he is secretly betting against to teach them about the fallacy of appeal to authority.
Other
UFOs are a product of a massive conspiracy unrelated to non-human entities
Ultraterrestrials (home-grown, advanced non-human civs, hidden from us)
UFOs are part of/directed by a superintelligence
AI is harder than practical interstellar travel
UFOs are aliens intentionally both hiding themselves and revealing themselves to sow chaos
UFOs are magic
15
13
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
4
3
1
0
0
0
OptionProbability
R+L=J
Mad Queen Dany
Shireen burnination
Nightlamp
King Bran
Jojen-paste
The Pink Letter not by Ramsey
Lemongate
Somebody is Euron
Aegon is a Blackfyre
Dany will burn the house with the Red Door
Time-traveling Bran
Arya kills Lady Stoneheart
Marwyn is Maegor Brightflame
Gerion Lannister is the Shrouded Lord
Bolt-On
Time-traveling fetus
98
89
88
88
86
68
66
60
34
32
31
31
31
26
26
19
5
OptionProbability
The Last Unicorn by Peter Beagle
Alcatraz versus the Evil Librarians by Brandon Sanderson
The Amulet of Samarkand by Jonathan Stroud
The Mysterious Benedict Society by Trenton Stewart
The Rithmatist by Brandon Sanderson
Sabriel by Garth Nix
The Phantom Tollbooth by Norton Juster
Holes by Louis Sachar
Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card
Mistborn by Brandon Sanderson
Small Gods by Terry Pratchett
Animorphs (series) by K. A. Applegate
Have Spacesuit Will Travel by Robert Heinlein
The Witches by Roald Dahl
Call of the Wild by Jack London
Watership Down by Richard Adams
The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes by Arthur Conan Doyle
Harry Potter and the methods of rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky
Something Wicked This Way Comes by Ray Bradbury
The Scarlet Pimpernel by Baroness Orczy
The Dark Lord of Derkholm by Diana Wynn Jones
Howl’s Moving Castle by Diana Wynn Jones
Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir
Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton
Airborne by Kenneth Oppel
Eagle of the Ninth by Rosemary Sutcliffe
Mr Midshipman Hornblower by C S Forester
Mythology by Edith Hamilton
A Magical Girl Retires by Park Seolyeon
The Paper Menagerie and Other Stories by Ken Liu
Tales of the Unexpected by Roald Dahl
Magician: Apprentice by Raymond E. Feist
Andromeda Strain by Michael Chriton
The Martian by Andy Weir
The Culture series by Iain M Banks
On Basilisk Station (Honor Harrington #1) by David Weber
A Wizard of Earthsea by Ursula LeGuin
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
86
85
84
82
81
80
80
70
70
65
61
59
55
55
54
54
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
37
34
31
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
12162
8222
OptionProbability
A Deutche Bahn train is delayed ***
We get an episode of The Snack Zone
Someone mentions Brian McManus
This season has more than five episodes
Sam says "We are so back" **
An athlete says that any athlete needs to "lock in" **
Toby introduces a mathematical concept
Amy from Wendover Productions is mentioned
The season features 3 distinct POVs
This season has more than six episodes
The game feature the original Tag zone map
Brian mentions Trump or Biden
Someone mentions Joseph, Scotty or Tom
An athlete mentions "cooked goose" **
Ben gets drunk (canonically)
Someone says "that's just how the jets lag" **
Adam wears a wig
We get an episode of the Zodiac Zone
Adam sings part of "Let's go to the beach, each (Starships)"
An athlete has to answer a riddle
One of the teams reaches their destination
Someone eats fondue
Sam mentions Formula One
An athlete rides a bicycle
This season has more than seven episodes
The season has more than 7 episodes
The season has more than 6 days of real-time game time
We get an episode of Choo Choo Chew
An athlete travels by boat (A->B)
An athlete swims
One of the Jet Leg trio tweets about this market before the finale*
We get an episode of Ben's Shower Corner
Michelle mentions astrology
94
91
87
87
85
83
73
72
67
66
66
63
62
60
59
59
50
50
45
41
37
34
34
34
34
34
34
32
24
24
20
17
13
OptionProbability
Explain "Krantz" thoroughly enough on the internet, that the idea itself becomes alive and takes over the world.
Solve education
Other
Travel to the Network State School
Go to LessOnline and Manifest
Go to Contact in the Desert.
Go to the Monroe Institute.
Work for society library.
Focus on finding a life partner
Recieve a grant to create an open-source home school program where parents and kids work collectively to create lessons and earn crypto credentials.
Start a podcast with livestream forecasting and collective reasoning.
Go on Lex Fridman and explain how to solve the control problem by solving education.
Publish an alignment plan
Find a new job
Travel to a new country
Learn a new language
Go on Liv Boeree's Win/Win podcast and explain how to kill Moloch by solving the control problem, by solving education.
Join or start an intentional living community of the rationalist variety.
Write a book
Code a indie video game
Start a religion that worships math, logic and constitutions of propositions as mechanisms that optimize communication, which is good. A Kant cult.
Run for political office as an open source Manchurian candidate that acts in accordance with how the network state votes.
Play poker professionally.
Take blog writing seriously.
28
22
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Lead author of the series is a man
There are threats in the universe that can destroy the planet/realm the main character lives on that they have to fight against
Has at least 6 animated episodes of an accompanying anime or OVA
published in Shonen Jump
Some sort of magic is used
Cute animal sidekick to the main character or their allies
Guns exist in the universe
'power of friendship' trope
'enemies to Lovers' trope
One of the top 2 main characters has green hair
'Time Travel' trope or a part of the key storyline
Set in the future
Psychic powers are used by an enemy or antihero character
Cloning technology exists in the universe
Has had a related skin in fortnite
'bad ass transfer student' trope
64
59
59
55
53
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
OptionProbability
Robotaxis have traveled 13 trillion vehicle miles
2030 Sales of batteries ≥ 600b
There will be around 100m robotaxis
Robotaxis will cost around $0.5/miles
≥74m EV sold in 2030
50
50
41
34
24