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Prediction markets for Document

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

Dec 28, 2:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.88%chance

2733704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5512

754

At the beginning of 2032, will Jeanne Calment's record for longest documented lifespan (122 years and 164 days) still hold?

Dec 13, 9:00 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.59%chance

436175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1960

616

How many videos will Species | Documenting AGI publish in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52938

OptionProbability

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 60

Above 60

23

23

20

13

10

10

Will the European Commission publish a new quantum strategy document within the next 60 days?

Jan 26, 8:22 PMMar 27, 8:21 PM

70.56%chance

192177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1548

646

Will Donald Trump be convicted on one or more counts in the classified documents case?

Oct 15, 9:42 AMJul 15, 5:33 PM

5.19%chance

151260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

305

5

Pope Leo XIV issues a document addressing birth control teaching by December 31, 2026?

Aug 17, 1:08 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

37.75%chance

16651

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

165

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.8%chance

9460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

739

Trump's trove of mishandled classified documents disclosed to have information on UFOs by 2040

Jun 8, 3:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.82%chance

6188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

54

Will "Training on Documents About Reward Hacking In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 22, 7:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

1164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

85

Will Jon Zherka have a real, unironic, documented mental breakdown in the next 5 years?

Jan 9, 9:57 PMJan 9, 10:59 PM

56%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

103

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Who is on the Doppelganger / Good Old USA anti-influencer list of Russian opponents according to court documents?

Sep 13, 8:45 PMSep 7, 5:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Michael C. Moynihan

Destiny

Drew Pavlou

Francis Fukuyama

50

50

50

49

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