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Prediction markets for Document

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

Dec 28, 2:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.88%chance

2733704

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5512

754

At the beginning of 2032, will Jeanne Calment's record for longest documented lifespan (122 years and 164 days) still hold?

Dec 13, 9:00 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.59%chance

436175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1960

616

Will the European Commission publish a new quantum strategy document within the next 60 days?

Jan 26, 8:22 PMMar 27, 8:21 PM

23%chance

375961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1830

547

How many videos will Species | Documenting AGI publish in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74937

OptionProbability

10 - 19

20 - 29

30 - 39

40 - 49

50 - 60

Above 60

47

20

11

8

7

7

Pope Leo XIV issues a document addressing birth control teaching by December 31, 2026?

Aug 17, 1:08 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

29.5%chance

17698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

141

Who is involved in the Russian influencer scheme (Doppelganger / Good Old USA), according to court documents?

Sep 7, 5:01 AMJul 1, 5:59 AM

5685

OptionProbability

Jill Stein

Tom Cotton

Ron Johnson

Nick Fuentes

Glenn Greenwald

Kari Lake

Ian Miles Cheong

Bret Weinstein

Lauren Boebert

Eric Weinstein

Jack Posobiec

Rand Paul

Lex Fridman

Donald Trump

62

57

55

54

51

50

50

50

50

50

50

47

41

17

Will "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 29, 10:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.8%chance

9460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

739

Trump's trove of mishandled classified documents disclosed to have information on UFOs by 2040

Jun 8, 3:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.82%chance

6188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

54

Will "Training on Documents About Reward Hacking In..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 22, 7:50 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

1164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

264

85

Will Jon Zherka have a real, unironic, documented mental breakdown in the next 5 years?

Jan 9, 9:57 PMJan 9, 10:59 PM

56%chance

687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

103

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Who is on the Doppelganger / Good Old USA anti-influencer list of Russian opponents according to court documents?

Sep 13, 8:45 PMSep 7, 5:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Michael C. Moynihan

Destiny

Drew Pavlou

Francis Fukuyama

50

50

50

49

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